Moderate GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro expects to lose re-election after dealing a major blow to the House GOP with a $35 million campaign

Democrat Josh Riley is expected to unseat first-term Rep. Marc Molinaro, R-N.Y., dealing a blow to House Republicans' hopes of retaining control of half of Congress next year.

The fight for New York's 19th Congressional District – which stretches across parts of upstate New York, the Hudson Valley and remote suburbs outside New York City and Albany – was among the most expensive in the country.

The Associated Press called Molinaro's race in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Both sides and their allies spent more than $35 million on digital and television advertising, Politico reported in September.

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He faced Democratic rival Josh Riley (right) in Rep. Marc Molinaro's re-election bid in 2022. (Getty Images | Josh Riley for Congress)

It has also been seen as a proxy for the national conversation about border security and abortion, two issues that have become political lightning rods in recent elections.

Molinaro was elected in 2022, defeating Riley by less than 2% amid a wave of suburban backlash against New York City's progressive crime policies.

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President Biden won Molinaro's district in the 2020 presidential campaign. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

He was one of several Republicans elected to a district that President Biden won in 2020.

Riley's campaign website touts him as a fifth-generation resident of upstate New York who came from humble beginnings.

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His previous experience on Capitol Hill included serving as general counsel to former Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Molinaro's loss in the district also spells danger for House Republicans across the board: Although his race was seen as competitive, he was not considered as vulnerable as other New York Republicans whose districts are closer to cities.

Republicans were expected to have won 184 seats, compared to 156 for Democrats in the House, according to AP's forecast.