San Diego State Aztecs, New Mexico game preview

The Lobos are bringing one of the most dynamic quarterbacks to Snapdragon on Friday night. Devon Dampier is a true dual-threat quarterback who forces defenses to be honest in their schemes and coverage.

The Lobos are quite a mystery. They started 0-4 and looked to be the favorite to win the MWC doormat. They lost to an FCS school, were knocked out by two Power 4 schools and lost their game to Fresno State in conference play. Something happened on the way to the forum. The Lobos then won three straight, scoring over 50 points. A 50-40 win over interstate rival New Mexico State was followed by a 52-37 win over Air Force and a last-minute touchdown to win 50-45 over Utah State. A week later, they were brought back down to earth with a 17-6 loss to upstart Colorado State. Last week they lost to Wyoming 49-45. The question remains whether the Lobos will continue their offensive light show against an Aztec squad that typically holds teams into the mid-20s.

Aztec quarterback Danny O'Neil continues his baptism of fire as he looks to bounce back from a dismal performance against Boise State. He had a passing percentage of 14/30 for 155 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He was under constant pressure from the Broncos' heavy rush and struggled to find open receivers. Running back Marquez Cooper managed a tough 94 yards and a score to keep the Broncos somewhat honest. The Aztecs need to drastically improve those numbers this week. The Aztec defense allowed Maddux Madsen, Ashton Jeanty and Co. to dominate them in a dominant manner. The Lobos differ in that they have a legitimate back in Eli Sanders (101/661 yards, 6 TDs), he is not on par with Ashton Jeanty. The order of the evening will be containment. Edge and quarterback runs. The ends have to protect the running options and not allow Lobos quarterback Devon Dampier to get the curve. His stats indicate his overall team leadership. He threw for 2,243 yards on 180/310 passes. He has ten scores, but also twelve interceptions. He is just as dangerous on the ground, rushing for 745 yards and 13 touchdowns. The Aztecs have to shadow him to keep him in the box. At the same time, they have to speed up his throws. He has a 58% completion rate and when he does throw, he has dynamic receivers, including all-conference Luke Wysong, who has 863 yards and 50 receptions but just one score. Can Trey White get back into the swing of things with sacks? He had a quiet game against Boise State, but he will be needed for a breakout game.

San Diego State Aztecs (3-4, 2-1 MWC) vs. New Mexico Lobos (3-6, 2-3 MWC)
Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA

Date/time: Friday, November 8th at 7:30pm PST

The Aztecs enter the game as 3-point favorites. Early signs point to a very close game with some tension on the scoreboard. The over/under points are a whopping 66.5 points. The projected outcome appears to be an easy win for the Aztecs, 36-33. Boise State is the favorite at home with 23.5 points. The game is listed at 56.5 points over/under. You can probably expect to see a light crowd on a Friday night against a struggling opponent. 22,000 would be a good number. The Aztecs will have to concede 56 points against Boise State. Expect the Lobos to look to repeat this game plan and replace Devon Dampier as the game's closer.

TV: FS1

radio: San Diego Sports 760

Story: This will be the 45th game between the two programs. The Aztecs hold a 29-15 lead and are on a nine-game winning streak. The Lobos last won in 2008 under coach Rocky Long. This was a 70-7 loss in Albuquerque. That was the end of an eight-game winning streak for the Lobos. Previously, the Aztecs had a thirteen-game winning streak against New Mexico. History points to a long winning streak. The last victory came in 2022 with a 34:10 away win for the Aztec. Whoever wins either continues their winning streak or starts a new streak.

Key to the game

1. Devon Dampier needs to curb his slash-and-slash approach. Like Dampier, the Lobos apparently feel the same way. He accounts for 82% of the Lobos offense. He is both an ongoing and temporary threat. The obvious glaring flaw is his turnovers. He threw 12 interceptions. Even though he doesn't get thrown out often, he can make a mistake or have to run away with the ball. Containment is key. Look for the Aztecs to eclipse their safety on the side where Luke Wysong lines up. They could try to hold onto him to cross him off Dampier's checklist. If the Aztecs can limit Wysong to a few catches, they will be in charge.

2. Danny O'Neil needs to have a better game against a porous Lobos defense. The struggle against Boise State wasn't entirely O'Neil's fault. With no protection or time to throw, he was constantly under fire, and the results showed. The Aztecs struggled with third period efficiency, turnovers and time of possession. One player on the Lobos defense to keep an eye on is former Aztec Noah Avinger. He has 35 tackles and one interception. O'Neil must produce a turnover-free performance and 250+ yards through the air. The Aztecs' ground game must last over 150 yards, with Cooper having a 100-yard game.

Analysis/Prediction: Both the Aztecs and Lobos need three wins to be bowl eligible. In all likelihood, both teams are on the outside looking in. Expect the Lobos to be creative and make some big plays. They were exciting, but they shot themselves in the foot. The Aztecs are looking to turn things around after last week's debacle against Boise State. Expect the Lobos to arrive, score points and go home with a 48-35 victory over the Aztecs. There is still a lot of work to be done for the Aztecs on both sides of the ball. This first year under coach Sean Lewis is a year of growth with a trend toward success in the future.

Other thoughts: Aztec player Tyler Pastula was named the national Ray Guy Player of the Year for his performance against Boise State. He punted four times for an average distance of 50.2 yards. Boise State and Colorado State are the only undefeated teams in conference play and appear to be conference championship contenders. Boise, Colorado State and UNLV are the only current bowl-eligible teams. Fresno State and San Diego State each have five wins and still need one more. Hawaii has four wins and San Diego State, New Mexico and Nevada all have three games. The level of competition in the remaining games doesn't look good. Most analysts expect only five teams to bowl, with Boise State leading the way to the College Football Playoff. That will change weekly, but regardless, it's been a year with more disappointments than successes, but there are still surprises.