Top picks from the NFL betting splits for Vikings-Rams on Thursday, October 24th

Tonight we open NFL Week 8 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Rams. Let's examine where the smart money is using our VSiN NFL betting splits. These come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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The Vikings (5-1) just suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to the Lions 31-29 and losing outright as 1.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Rams (2-4) just ended a two-game losing streak with a 20-15 win over the Raiders, but were unable to maintain themselves as 7-point home favorites.

That line started with Minnesota listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public finds this line far too short and rushes to the window to settle the points with the Vikings. However, despite receiving a whopping 90% of the spread bets, the Vikings were flat at -3. In fact, some trades even go back to Vikings -2.5. This suggests a lot of line freezing and some notable inverted line moves from the Rams, as the line has either stayed the same or shifted slightly in their favor despite being the wildly unpopular team.

The Rams have notable contrarian value, receiving just 10% of the spread bets in a high-stakes primetime game. Conference home dogs scoring 4 points or less are 140-118 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. Primetime dogs are 128-106 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2020. Sean McVay is 14-10 ATS (58%) with a 12% ROI as a Dog scoring 3 points or more. McVay is 6-2 on Thursday Night Football. The Rams also have a low buy value as a “bad” ATS team (1-5) versus a high sell “good” ATS team (5-1).

If you want to bet against the public and follow the Rams' sharp game, you should secure the key number +3. If the Rams are +2.5, you could opt to play Los Angeles in a Wong teaser (+2.5 to +8.5) that goes through key numbers 3 and 7. Los Angeles should enjoy an offensive boost as they welcome the return of WR Cooper Kupp and possibly WR Puka Nacua. Every team that has played the Lions this season has lost the following game. This speaks to the physical toll the Detroit game took on opponents.

The total was at 46 and rose as high as 49 earlier in the week. At this point we saw some under buybacks enter the market and the total fell back to 48. The over receives 64% of the bets and 71% of the dollars. The Unders' primetime odds are 12-13 (48%) this season, but have been 172-120 (59%) since 2019. When the total score in a primetime game is 47 or more, the under is 4-4 and 24-12 (67%) this season. ) since 2022.

Player props to consider

Jordan Addison over 42.5 receiving yards (-110): Addison caught three passes for 66 yards against Detroit last week. He has exceeded that number in two of his last three games. He has also exceeded this number in 6 of his last 8 away games since last season. The Rams are allowing 211.8 yards per game, which ranks 18th in the NFL. With the Rams focusing on limiting WR Justin Jefferson, this presents favorable matchups for Addison. This is also a high total game played indoors, which bodes well for the offensive performance.