What to expect from the Rockets, Grizzlies and Spurs in the 2024-25 NBA season

Welcome. We're back.

The 2024-25 NBA regular season is finally here after months of inaction. Finally we have a place to discuss Xs and O's, shot selection and what players and coaches say.

Ahead of my second season as a regional reporter – covering the Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs – I decided to share everything that was on my mind leading up to the new campaign. Each of these three organizations is poised for progress, with the Grizzlies and Rockets in particular eyeing the postseason. I think the Spurs are at least a year away from these talks.

Still, it will be a fun and competitive season. In Houston, Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün have been cemented as franchise cornerstones by signing contract extensions and signaling their intent to compete. Ja Morant and Desmond Bane are healthy and ready to put Memphis back on the map with some help. And in San Antonio, Victor Wembanyama has the NBA world at his fingertips, fresh from an admirable run at the Olympics and ready to take another leap in his game.

I'm looking forward to a great year and hope you all do the same. Let me know in the comments what you think I should tackle in the upcoming season. Now for the notes.

• If Ime Udoka wants to lead the Rockets — who finished the 2023-24 regular season seventh in defensive rating (per Cleaning the Glass) — to greater heights, the signing of a healthy Steven Adams should prove crucial. Somehow his presence might be underestimated.

Houston may not have the flashiest additions of the last few years — Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and now Adams — but there's a reason Udoka does things, especially on defense. The Rockets not only want their veteran players to lead by example, which is evident in the responsibility and professionalism VanVleet displays on the field, but also in the way he wants his veterans to coach are. Houston now has a team of three teaching assistants with Adams, Brooks and VanVleet.

On Tuesday, as reporters crowded the south wall waiting to speak with Udoka, Green and Şengün, my attention turned to the other end of the room. Adams worked with Jack McVeigh and Jock Landale, who moved their arms and bodies to demonstrate proper positioning. Adams was also the loudest and most vocal participant in the Rockets' “weak” pick-and-roll defensive drill, the final piece of work before the end of practice.

The purpose of this drill is to keep the action away from the “strong” side of the floor and force the ball into the area where there is less congestion. Historically, Adams has been one of the better defensive centers and can still move laterally and protect the rim even after a long injury layoff.

On Wednesday, the Rockets open their regular season at home against the Charlotte Hornets and LaMelo Ball. Ball is one of the most skilled ball handlers around and is in the 80th percentile among pick-and-roll players with 0.976 points per possession, which is almost half his Offensive package corresponds. Ball is known to attack high screens fluidly and attempt to allow quick, open shots to the shooters on the perimeter.

“Weak! Weak! Keep them weak!” Adams shouted as he took part in the drill while his teammates looked on.

Şengün is set for a productive defensive season and as much credit as Udoka will get for his development, I think Adams should get credit too.

• I'm less concerned with predictions than some others – although the Rockets have a good chance to win 10 of their first 14 games. My curiosity is about Udoka's lineup combinations. Last season he relied on his starters more than most coaches, with mixed results. According to NBA.com, the difference between the two most used lineups is nearly 600 minutes, but the VanVleet/Green/Brooks/Jabari Smith Jr./Şengün group only had a net rating of plus-0.4. This is not a playoff team, at least not in the Western Conference.

How does Udoka diversify? Becoming more comfortable experimenting is a good place to start. In the second half of last season, for example, the core of VanVleet, Green and Şengün – flanked by Smith and Cam Whitmore – scored a plus-21 in 25 minutes of play. Small sample size, but it's clear that this combination works. Further adjustments to the game would do them a lot of good. Maybe surround Şengün with four athletes for a three-minute stint? There are endless possibilities.

• Last week, VanVleet talked about postponing more dates, which raises an interesting question: What exactly does that look like? In recent seasons, VanVleet's usage has hovered around 26 percent, but in his first season in Houston he reached new heights, with his assist-to-effort ratio of 1.36 being by far the highest of his nine-year career. VanVleet's usage fell to 23.0 percent last season, and that number could drop even further, especially if Udoka develops more confidence in Reed Sheppard and Amen Thompson – not to mention Şengün's rapid rise to stardom.

• Whatever the weaning process is, it doesn't have to be sudden. Sheppard's pre-season was decent – I tend not to bend to I care a lot about percentages in exhibition games – but from a process standpoint, the rookie is still, well, a rookie. It will not be an immediate transition. There's also no rush to put too much responsibility on him, especially when the Rockets have so many capable ball-handlers.

• Jaren Jackson Jr. won't be available for the Grizzlies' season opener, but I'm buying all the Santi Aldama stock I can get. Again, take the preseason stats with a grain of salt, but Aldama's floor spacing is hard to ignore. The fourth-year big shot shot 52.4 percent from deep on over five attempts per game. It's less about his skill and more about how it impacts head coach Taylor Jenkins' plans to pick up the pace. Aldama improved as a rebounder last season and if he is able to act as a quick release for Morant and Bane, Memphis' efficiency in the half court should improve.

• Scotty Pippen Jr. was rewarded for his consistency over the last few months with a multi-year contract, but when it comes to what Memphis wants from a backup playmaker, Yuki Kawamura's name needs to be given more respect. What he lacks in size and physicality, he makes up for in IQ and speed. Kawamura ranked second in assists (4.2) behind Morant (4.5) and is more risk-averse than Pippen Jr., averaging half as many turnovers as his teammate. I expect a stint or two with the Hustle, the Grizzlies' G League affiliate, but Kawamura understands the gaps in the NBA and should get a chance at some point.

• Quiz time. Did you know that Malaki Branham led the Spurs in field goal attempts in the preseason (12.8)? No, you didn't. Nobody knew that.

Seriously, Branham's aggressive performance (his efficiency is a discussion for another day) calls San Antonio's depth into question. Let's say Chris Paul, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Jeremy Sochan and Wembanyama are the opening night starters. Devin Vassell will return sometime early this year and Keldon Johnson looks renewed. Tre Jones and freshman Stephon Castle will handle the majority of the ball-handling duties in the second unit. Either Zach Collins or Sandro Mamukelashvili will take over the backup center minutes (I'm leaning toward the latter). I've already named 10 players without even mentioning Branham or Blake Wesley.

That's a lot of players vying for minutes. Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich has a big problem, but Branham is in an interesting position.

• After the Spurs' final preseason game, a 129-107 loss to the Rockets, Popovich discussed the prospect of Wembanyama's rhythm and conditioning, acknowledging that it could take some time for his body to recalibrate after a long year of basketball. When coaches talk like that, it's usually a context for future performances when Wembanyama struggles on offense.

But when his shots don't come as quickly as he expects, there's a huge playmaking version of Wemby who is a terror. I saw it at the Olympics, but using Wembanyama as a primary or even secondary ballhandler opens up a whole system offensively for the Spurs, especially with the addition of quality floor-spacing players like Barnes and Paul. San Antonio should have a much easier time this season building a roster that focuses on the IQ of Paul and Wembanyama.

(Photo of Tre Jones of the Spurs and Fred VanVleet of the Rockets: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)