Harris-Trump showdown: Presidential election campaign with a margin of error, just a week until Election Day

A week before Election Day, it remains a coin toss race in the White House between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump.

Both the vice president and former president, their running mate and top surrogates face a race to the margin of error in both the national polls and swing state polls, continuing to fan out in the seven crucial battleground states that are likely to be over The election will be decided by the 2024 presidential election.

On the trail

The Republican presidential candidate starts Tuesday from his home base in Palm Beach, Florida, where his campaign says Trump will address the press.

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Former President Trump hosts a rally at New York's Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024. (AP)

The former president then holds two events in Pennsylvania, which, with 19 electoral votes, is the largest prize among the key swing states.

Trump's vice presidential candidate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, is campaigning with two stops in battleground Michigan.

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The Democratic candidate is in the nation's capital, taking a day off from swing-state travel as she delivers what the Harris campaign is touting as her closing argument in an address at the Ellipse with the White House as the backdrop.

Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at Burns Park on Monday, Oct. 28, 2024, in Ann Arbor, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya) (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Harris' running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is making three stops in the crucial southeastern battleground of Georgia.

Voting

Early voter turnout was high and swing states like Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina broke records.

And with Trump apparently fully on board, the GOP's efforts to convince Republicans to vote early appear to be working.

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The GOP hopes this surge in early voting will help the party recover from setbacks in the 2020 and 2022 elections, when Democrats dominated early in-person and mail-in voting.

Survey position

A handful of national polls suggest a dead heat between Harris and Trump, while others suggest the vice president has a slight advantage or the former president has the edge.

But beyond the top spots, there are warning signs for both candidates.

Harris has lost her favorability advantage over Trump in some recent polls.

After he replaced President Biden as the 2024 Democratic leadership in July, the vice president's positive ratings skyrocketed. But they have been steadily declining over the past month.

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Another warning sign for Harris is polling that suggests her support among Black voters is below Biden's level in the 2020 election.

For Trump, his support among white voters is synonymous with his standing in the 2020 election, when he lost the White House to Biden.

And the former president still has a significant deficit compared to the vice president when it comes to being trustworthy and caring about people.

The latest national poll from Fox News.

While national polls are being closely watched, the race for the White House is not based on the national popular vote. It's a fight for the states and their votes.

And the latest polls in the seven crucial battleground states whose razor-thin results decided Biden's victory over Trump in 2020 and will likely decide whether Harris or Trump wins the 2024 election are largely within the margin of error.

The latest Fox News national poll showed Trump with a two-point lead among respondents in all seven battleground states, but Harris with a six-point lead.

Cash Dash

While there is some margin of error in the polls, there is a clear frontrunner in the battle for campaign funds, another important indicator in presidential politics. And it's Harris.

According to the latest figures filed by the parties' two major presidential campaigns with the Federal Election Commission, Harris raised $97 million in the first half of October.

That far exceeds the $16 million the Trump campaign said it raised in the first half of this month.

Both campaigns use a range of partners Fundraising committees collect money. And taking those into account, Trump narrowed the gap, but lost $176 million to $97 million in the first two weeks of this month.

In the first 16 days of October, Democratic presidential nominee Trump's campaign spent between $166 million and $99 million, with paid media accounting for the highest spending in both campaigns.

However, Harris ended the period with more money in her coffers. As of October 16, it had $119 million in cash on hand, while Trump had $36 million. When joint fundraising committees are also included, Harris has a cash advantage of $240 million to $168 million.

Get the latest updates on the 2024 election, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital Election Center.