Economist predicts Trump's election victory

The “most accurate economist in the world” is predicting a victory for former President Trump on Election Day, with Republicans also predicting a “clean” retake of control of Congress.

Christophe Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, also said U.S. growth would accelerate after the election.

“Looking at various metrics such as betting markets, polls, election model predictions and financial markets, the most likely outcomes currently are: (1) #Trump win (2) #GOP clean win,” he wrote on X.

TRUMP IS OVERHEARED AFTER THE MSG RALLY AS HE AND HARRIS ARE STILL A WEEK FROM ELECTION DAY

Market Securities chief economist and strategist Christophe Barraud poses for portraits at Market Securities headquarters in Paris on January 28, 2021. Barraud predicts a Trump election victory and a clear victory for the Republicans in Congress. (Eric Piermont/AFP via Getty Images)

Barraud, 38, has been named the top economic forecaster for the U.S. economy by Bloomberg every year since 2012.

Despite his economic growth forecast, Barraud warned that returns could fall if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected with a divided Congress, as the market has already priced in a Republican victory. It would correct downwards, he added.

If Trump wins and Congress is split along party lines, his ability to cut taxes on businesses and households could stall, Barraud told Business Insider. Trump will therefore focus on tariffs that could hurt global growth, he said.

The most likely outcome, according to Barraud, is a Republican victory in Congress.

Battleground State officials say foreign enemies are using misinformation to “undermine” the democratic process.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are about ten days away from the 2024 presidential election. (Fox News)

If Trump wins the Republican majority, he could push through tax cuts for businesses and households and focus more on his domestic agenda rather than foreign policy.

In the short term, this would lead to a GDP increase of between 2.1% and 2.3% in 2025, he said. The risk with Trump, Barraud said, is that if he cuts taxes without there being any way to pay for it, the deficit could rise.

Former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris debate at the National Constitution Center on September 10, 2024 in Philadelphia. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

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The 10-year Treasury yield would initially rise to 4.5% from about 4.23% under Trump. He expects the rate to rise from there to around 5% if the Republicans win.