New data sheds light on the chance of rain on Halloween in Houston

HOUSTON – It looks like Halloween in Houston might be a wet one, at least at first.

The good news right now is that it looks like most of the wet weather should clear from most of the area in time for trick-or-treaters.

This is what it looks like.

Today and Wednesday

We are already seeing changes on Tuesday in the form of stronger southerly winds and more cloud cover.

We actually had a few sea breeze showers in parts of Fort Bend and western Harris County on Monday evening, and that could happen again today. We don't expect anything heavy from this, but it could get a little wet in some places.

It's a similar story on Wednesday as cloud cover continues to increase and scattered showers occur across the region. On Thursday our rain chances really increase ahead of a cold front.

Halloween rain

Starting Thursday morning, we could see some showers ahead of the cold front. You can see the stronger storms north of the Houston area in this computer model image. The cold front should be here around 6 a.m. Thursday morning.

By midday Thursday, the front is expected to approach the immediate Houston area, accompanied by a line or broken line of showers and thunderstorms.

You can see that our computer models really want to bring this line together better once it gets south of Houston and closer to the coast. We observed very heavy rainfall during some of these storms. The serious threat appears to be very low at the moment, but there is a chance of gusty winds and possibly hail.

By 5 p.m., models project a majority of the storms to move east and south of the Houston area. All storms should move offshore by around 8 p.m. Thursday.

So how much rain will we get?

Data coming in suggests parts of the area could see some decent rain, which is good considering Houston didn't see any measurable precipitation at the official weather station at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

Up to two inches of rain could fall in some areas, particularly north and east of the immediate Houston area. Houston could also get away with not having its driest October on record if we get measurable precipitation at the IAH weather station before the end of Thursday evening.

What about trick-or-treating?

I have good news for children and their families who want to go trick-or-treating on Halloween.

Although it looks wet by early afternoon, the rain will likely have cleared from most of the area by the time trick-or-treating gets underway.

Roads could still be wet and some areas of Southeast Texas could still see some showers, but based on the data we have, most of the area should be drivable at this time.