A look at the US election from a weather perspective

Election Day is less than a week away. We are also approaching the beginning of November, the last month of “hurricane season.” At the time of writing, people like me are watching the tropics and election day forecasts for the US. Here is the latest information.

Before we look at the possible weather on Election Day, let's start with the tropics. According to the National Hurricane Center, there is no immediate threat to tropical development until early this week. I always enjoy messages like the one in the satellite map above. However, as we look further into the future, there is something worth watching. On Sunday morning, NOAA tropical experts wrote: “An extensive low pressure area is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days.” The National Hurricane Center estimates the chance of the system developing within seven days at 30%. They further said: “Gradual development is possible towards the end of the week and into the weekend as the system begins to drift north or northeast over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea.” Models suggest that places such as Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should pay attention in the coming week.

Currently, this system does not appear to pose a threat to the United States on Election Day. This point brings me to a slight digression. A few days ago, a particular model showed a hurricane over or near Florida on Election Day. Repeat after me: It is irresponsible to publish such things two or more weeks in advance. The models in this area are often in “fantasy land”. My profession faces the dangerous tendency for people to share such information to get clicks, attention and likes. Social mediarology causes confusion among the public. I recommend you use that STAR method Going forward: Stop, think, evaluate and reconsider before sharing weather information. It is important that you consider the source, time frame, and context before sharing. My colleague Craig Setzer has the perfect answer in the thread about X posted above.

Even though I'm talking about general weather conditions on election day, it's in your best interest to keep these in mind develop further Forecast. That said, let’s take a look at the days leading up to Election Day. The map above is from “a” deterministic output of the American GFS model and represents the potential weather one week from today. My confidence in the models increases as we approach the three to seven day window. This information suggests that much of the Southeast, Northeast and West will be relatively rain-free on the Sunday before Election Day.

This blue H stands for high pressure. Generally, high pressure is associated with sinking air and clear conditions. In fact, high pressure has been prevalent here in the Southeast since Hurricane Helene, and I'm starting to worry about the lack of precipitation as November begins. High pressure will keep much of the eastern half of the U.S. relatively rain-free through Election Day. Some parts of the eastern United States could experience record warm weather in the week leading up to Election Day.

Rainfall across the central US and upper Midwest could continue through Election Day. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center said a sharp front across the middle of the country will bring rain over the next week or so.

“The rear of the front is expected to slow and retreat by next weekend in response to strong renewed low energy digging into a restive west,” it said. “This will result in a resurgence of moderate/heavy rainfall across the southern U.S. late this week/weekend.”

I'm writing this weekend USA todayMy colleague Doyle Rice said: “While weather could play a role in this election, the forecast for November 5th looks rather favorable across much of the country.”

I tend to agree. Common sense and scientific studies have shown that bad weather can affect voter turnout, but I don't see weather as a major factor this cycle. Conditions are good across most of the country and the weather during the early election period was quite good across most of the country. A 2024 study published in the journal Political geography examined voter behavior in North Carolina over the last decade or so. The research found that rain can dampen voter turnout, but alternative voting methods begin to offset the suppression.

As we saw during the 2012 U.S. presidential election and Hurricane Sandy, parts of the Southeast are still recovering from two devastating hurricanes. North Carolina and Florida were particularly affected by hurricanes Helene and Milton. The research is inconclusive regarding the impact of Hurricane Sandy on the presidential election, but it is clear to me that many families and businesses are still in recovery mode weeks after these storms. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper estimated the recovery and damage costs at $53 billion. Honestly, that might still be low, and that's just in North Carolina. The AP broke down the shocking numbers in the state. Similar numbers were estimated for Hurricane Milton.

Speaking of Milton and Helene, early studies suggest that unusually warm water contributed significantly to the intensity and rainfall productivity of both. What do the two major presidential candidates say about climate change? It is a problem that lurks beneath the surface and impacts our infrastructure, national security, food prices and health. Climate change also impacts our “kitchen table” issues. Ballot has a good comparison of both campaign platforms on climate change.