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    Who will win the presidential election, right? What polls predict
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    Who will win the presidential election, right? What polls predict

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    Polls for the presidential race remain tight as both candidates complete their final rounds of voting in the crucial period before the grand finale.

    With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, the focus remains on swing states like Arizona, which are expected to determine the winner of the 2024 presidential election.

    Arizonans' voting intentions remain among the most politically polarized in the country, making the state's 11 electoral votes crucial to whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump wins.

    In the last few weeks before the election, candidates who were not elected held rallies and held discussions with different groups of the population. Both presidential candidates have visited border towns in Arizona and stressed the importance of border security.

    The polls and ratings over the last two months have shown that the dynamics have changed and how close the presidential race has become. But who is more likely to win in Arizona and across the country?

    This is what polls, ratings and historians say about Election Day on Tuesday, November 5th.

    Who is ahead in the polls in the USA?

    Polls and odds are constantly changing, but here is where each candidate stood as of 7 a.m. on October 25, 2024:

    • ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 48%, ahead of Trump at 46.5%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as much as four percent, but recent polls show them much closer.
    • 270towin shows Harris leading Trump by 0.6% in the national polls.
    • realclearpolling shows that the betting odds are the same.

    More: Is Arizona a swing state in the 2024 presidential election? Here's what you should know

    Who is leading the polls in Arizona?

    Former President Donald Trump had a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona in most polls released last week, but polls show the race is still a dead heat in this battleground state.

    Polls and odds are constantly changing, but here is where each candidate stood as of 7 a.m. on October 25, 2024 in Arizona:

    • ABC News Project 538 shows Trump leading Harris by 1.9% in polls in Arizona.
    • 270towin shows Trump leading Harris by 1.4% in the Arizona polls.
    • realclearpolling shows that the betting odds for the victory in Arizona are in favor of Trump by a margin of +1.5.

    Historian who predicted 9 out of 10 elections comments

    Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at the American University in Washington, DC. He earned a doctorate from Harvard specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.

    He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last ten presidential elections, confirming his prediction of which candidate will retake the White House.

    This year, he predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.

    How accurate were the voting rates or polls in past presidential elections?

    According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

    Polling track record is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different populations can often find higher margins of error.

    According to Pew Research, the public's trust in opinion polls has suffered due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

    In these two general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

    Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this article.

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