Why the results of the first vote can be misleading

Topline

Votes counted on Election Day tend to favor Republicans, a phenomenon known as a “red mirage,” while a so-called blue shift occurs when Democrats win in post-election votes – a reporting gap that is expected to be less pronounced this year compared to 2020. Fewer voters cast mail-in ballots and more Republicans are voting early.

Important facts

What we don't know

How long will it take for the election to be called? In such a close election, with polls showing Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris within two points of each other in all seven contests, the race may not be played on Election Day. Federal law requires states to complete recounts and resolve any disputes over the results by Dec. 11. There are some reasons to believe results will be counted faster this year than in 2020, including record-breaking in-person early voting totals in several states. and fewer mail-in ballots than in the previous election held during the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in more voters casting their ballots by mail. Some states, like Michigan, have also changed their laws since 2020 to allow mail-in ballots to be counted before Election Day, while others have tightened restrictions, including North Carolina, which passed a new law last year requiring officials to to wait until 7:30 a.m. — after polls close — to begin tabulating results, rather than doing so in real time.

Important background

Trump used the “red mirage” to claim that there was voter fraud in the 2020 election and insisted that only votes counted on Election Day were valid. At 2 a.m. on election night, with at least a half-dozen battleground states still uncalled, he prematurely claimed victory in 2020, declaring, “We want all voters to stop.” . We don't want them to find ballots at 4 a.m. and add them to the list.” The election was called for Biden on November 7th after his victory in Pennsylvania gave him the majority of 270 electoral votes required to win. However, Georgia and North Carolina were not scheduled until November 19th and 13th, respectively. To forestall a loss, Trump claimed without evidence during his 2020 campaign that mail-in ballots were vulnerable to fraud – a narrative he largely dropped during his last campaign and encouraged his supporters to vote any way they could.

tangent

Trump also claimed without evidence during the 2018 midterms that the shrinking leads of Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and Gov. Ron DeSantis — both of whom ultimately won their elections, though by narrower margins than on the first day of voting — were due to ” “Large numbers of new ballots” had “popped up out of nowhere,” he tweeted, adding: “Must go along with election night!”

What you should pay attention to

Trump has repeatedly suggested he won't accept the results if he loses, insisting Democrats can't win unless they “cheat.” Trump is laying the groundwork for challenging the results by falsely claiming that Democrats would grant voting rights to undocumented immigrants and that his legal battles, Harris' replacement of Biden at the top of the ballot and negative media coverage of his campaign all amounted to voter fraud . On Tuesday, he also made claims on his Truth Social account that Lancaster County received “THUSANDS OF potentially FRAUDULENT voter registration forms and absentee ballot applications from a third-party group.” . . in addition to Lancaster County being caught with 2,600 fraudulent ballots and forms, all written by the same person.” Lancaster County officials said last week they were investigating about 2,500 applications from voter recruitment centers across the county. About 60% of the applications appeared to be fraudulent and contained false addresses, false names and personal identification information, and addresses that did not match Social Security information. Officials said two other districts were also investigating application irregularities.

Big number

More than 9.5 million. That's how many Democrats cast early ballots through Oct. 29 this year, compared with about 8.8 million Republicans, according to Florida Election Lab data for states that track the party affiliation of early voters. The numbers show that a larger share of Republicans appear to be voting early this year than in 2020, when nearly 11 million Democrats voted early nine days before the election, compared to about 5.1 million Republicans.

Further reading

Early Trump-Harris Voting Trends: GOP Gains Democratic Advantage (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris leads in last two polls – as polls pick up a week before Election Day (Forbes)

2024 Election Swing State Polls: Trump Leads in Nevada, Harris Leads in Michigan and Arizona in Latest Polls (Updated) (Forbes)