Fox News poll: Trump still narrowly ahead of Harris in North Carolina

Voters in North Carolina are likely to see former President Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris in the presidential race, according to a new Fox News poll. That has remained unchanged since September.

Among likely voters, Trump leads 49-47%, while third-party candidates get 4%. In the two-way contest, his lead narrows to one point – a useful indicator since pre-election polls often overstate support for third-party candidates.

In the larger universe of registered voters, Harris is up by 1 point in both the expanded vote (48-47%) and the head-to-head vote (50-49%).

The differences between Harris and Trump are within the margin of error on all voting tests.

The previous Fox News poll of North Carolina voters, released in September, also showed Trump narrowly ahead among likely voters and Harris narrowly ahead among registered voters.

Looking at the overall election results among likely voters, Trump is preferred among whites without a college degree, among white voters overall, among rural voters, and among voters age 65 and older.

Harris is preferred by black voters, urban voters, college-educated voters and voters under 35. She also has a small lead among suburban voters, reflecting the fact that she has a larger lead among suburban women than Trump has among suburban men.

FOX NEWS POLL: MORE HARRIS THAN TRUMP SUPPORTERS THINK VOTERS WILL BE COUNTED ACCURATELY AND WILL ACCEPT THE RESULT

According to the North Carolina Fox News Voter Analysis election poll, Trump is meeting or exceeding his 2020 numbers among these groups, while Harris' support lags behind the support President Joe Biden received among Black, young and suburban voters.

There is a 20-point gender gap, with men voting for Trump by 13 points and women voting for Harris by 7 points.

The former president benefits from the fact that North Carolina has more voters who form his base. More people identify as Republicans than Democrats, fewer have college degrees, and there are far more rural than urban voters.

Trump has won the Tar Heel state twice, in 2016 by nearly 4 percentage points and in 2020 by just over a point. In the last 20 years, former President Barack Obama was the only Democrat to win North Carolina, doing so in 2008 by less than half a point.

“Whoever wins North Carolina will likely do two things: win the suburbs with a stronger closing message and maximize turnout in their base areas,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who runs Fox News polls with Republican Daron Shaw.

When likely voters are asked who they trust to solve important issues, they prefer Trump on immigration (by 17 points), the conflict in the Middle East (+10) and the economy (+6). Harris is favored to cover election integrity (+4) and abortion (+12).

About 14% of Harris supporters trust Trump to handle immigration, while 11% of those who support Trump trust Harris to handle abortion.

By a 5-point margin, more voters see Trump as a strong leader, while 5 points more say Harris has the right temperament to be president. There are minor differences in helping the middle class (Harris +3), protecting American democracy (Harris +3), fighting for people like you (Harris +1), making necessary changes (Trump +2), and more like say what they believe as what will get them the election (Trump +3).

More Trump supporters (75%) than Harris supporters (71%) say they are extremely interested in the election, while more than 9 in 10 of each candidate's supporters say they are confident in their decision to vote.

By a 4 percent difference, more voters view both Harris and Trump negatively than positively, 48% each positively versus 52% negatively. In comparison, President Joe Biden's personal rating is 13 points (43-56%) lower.

Harris trails by 2 points among the 4 in 10 who say they have already voted (50-48%). Overall, voters who say they will vote early favor Trump by one point, while he is favored by 7 points among those who plan to vote on Election Day.

In the governor's race, Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican Mark Robinson by 16 points (57-41%).

Support for Stein exceeds support for Harris, as 14% of those who support him also support Trump in the presidential race.

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“Despite having a troubled gubernatorial candidate and a need to mobilize voters in hurricane-ravaged areas, Trump continues to hold a slight lead in generating enthusiastic support in key Republican constituencies,” Shaw notes.

Pollpourri

Among the larger sample of registered voters…

– Harris has slightly more support among Democrats (95%) than Trump has among Republicans (93%), and is narrowly ahead of independents (46% to Trump's 41%, within the margin of error).

— While Trump enjoys the support of 76% of non-MAGA Republicans, Harris has 17% and another 5% prefer a third-party candidate (too few to stand out among the likely voter subset).

— Trump's lead in handling the economy has shrunk to just 3 percentage points, compared with a 7-point lead last month and 9 points in August.

— An equal number of voters say they are doing well financially as they say they are falling behind (44% each), while just one in 10 believe their family is getting ahead. These numbers have remained unchanged since February, despite severe flooding and damage from Hurricane Helene in September.

CLICK HERE FOR TOPLINE AND Crosstabs

This Fox News poll was conducted October 24-28, 2024, co-led by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), and includes interviews with a random sample of 1,113 registered voters in North Carolina from a nationwide voter file. Respondents spoke to live interviewers via landlines (164) and cell phones (685) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (264). Results based on the full sample of registered voters and the subsample of 872 likely voters have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model based on past voting history, interest in the current election, age, education, race, ethnicity, church attendance, and marital status.

Fox News' Victoria Balara contributed to this report.