St. A's poll: Harris and Ayotte are both ahead by single digits in the race, which is slowly trending toward the GOP

The latest survey from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) on New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) shows that Republican Kelly Ayotte still has the same three-point lead she has enjoyed since she was first elected after the September primary.

Over the same period, Vice President Kamala Harris's support remained unchanged at 51 percent, while former President Donald Trump's support increased last month, narrowing the gap from 51-43 percent (Harris +8) to 51-46 percent (Harris +5). .

“With just one week until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris maintains her lead over former President Donald Trump in New Hampshire. “Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte remains near the 50 percent mark in the gubernatorial race, holding a slim lead over former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig,” said Neil Levesque, executive director of the NH Institute of Politics.

But if you look closer, you can see a subtle shift toward the Republican Party, similar to the small but steady rise in Trump numbers across the country.

Overall, the trend in the St. A's poll is relatively consistent: stable races with little movement, with a slight GOP surge in recent weeks.

For example, U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (D) has been at 50 percent since the primary. His opponent, Republican Russell Prescott, rose from 38 percent to 43 percent. That gives Pappas a healthy seven-point lead, but the only movement is toward Republicans.

In the race for retiring U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster's seat, Democrat Maggie Goodlander's vote was little changed (49 to 51 percent), while Republican Lily Tang Williams' vote rose from 38 to 43 percent. Still a big lead for Goodlander (+8), but not much movement.

And on the general election question: Would you vote Democratic or Republican for Congress? – Democrats haven’t moved in three months: 49 percent. The GOP number increased from 44 to 47 percent.

What do all these humble movements mean? They appear to be following the national trend that shows a close race for the White House, but with some momentum for Trump. Could the changing numbers be enough to bring Trump to the Granite State?

Trump campaign insiders say that is extremely unlikely, but national spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told radio host Jack Heath on Wednesday that a visit from Trump's vice presidential candidate, Sen. JD Vance, could be on the cards.

NBC News numbers guru Steve Kornacki said on the Commentary podcast Wednesday that New Hampshire is one of the peripheral states he's keeping an eye on, along with Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia.

“It's a crazy state and it also has a very, very unique and independent political tradition,” Kornacki said.

Earlier in the day, right-wing pollster Rasmussen Reports released numbers showing Harris leading by just one point in the Granite State, 48 percent to 47 percent.

And the two previous public polls — NHJournal and Emerson College — had the Trump vs. Harris race within the margin of error.

Is Trump likely to win the Granite State? Most political experts think that is unlikely. But if it's close, as it was in 2016, that could mean good news for Republicans who didn't vote — and a long night for the Harris campaign across the country.