Latino voters are abandoning Kamala Harris and the Democrats. That's the real reason for it

Democratic support among black voters is showing signs of some erosion, but it is Latinos — now the country's largest ethnic minority — who could tip the balance in the 2024 election. Latinos are now the largest ethnic minority in the country, their numbers increasing 23 percent from 2010 to 2020, and they now make up 62.1 million, or 18.7 percent of the total U.S. population. In California, Latinos make up nearly 40 percent of the population.

Unlike African Americans, 80 percent or more of whom are likely to vote Democratic, Latinos are far more evenly divided. The Democratic share of Latino voters, which was nearly 70 percent in 2016, is now just over half. Latinos make up nearly 15 percent of all eligible voters, although they tend to vote less than other groups, and by 2030 that share could nearly double. Latinos could prove crucial in many key battleground states such as Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

In the past, progressives assumed that Latinos, as people of color, would be a safe constituency for Democrats. However, it is likely that economic factors are more influential in voting behavior than racial considerations. Projections indicate that Latinos will make up 78 percent of net new arrivals in the United States between 2020 and 2030.

Crucially, Latinos, particularly men, are particularly prominent in manufacturing, agriculture, transportation and construction. People who work with their hands and small business owners lean toward the Republican Party, while those who work as yoga instructors, teachers, environmental consultants and lawyers tend to lean Democratic. Black voters, meanwhile, are overrepresented in government work, such as as public transit workers and nursing assistants. They make up over 18 percent of the federal government's workforce, about 50 percent more than their share of the population. Hispanics make up less than 10 percent of federal employees, about half their share of the population.

Latinos are also prominently represented in the small business sector. They start more businesses per capita than any other racial or ethnic group. Most Latino small businesses are small and family-run and represent the fastest-growing group of entrepreneurs in the United States. Over the last decade, the number of Latino business owners grew by 34 percent, compared to just 1 percent for all business owners. Like people in manual jobs, small business owners tend to lean toward the Republican Party, perhaps lured by its promises to curb crime, cut taxes and impose less regulation.

In addition to these economic considerations, cultural factors also play a role. Overall, Latinos—and most immigrants—tend to be somewhat more religiously and culturally conservative than white Americans, and far more so than modern, culturally ultra-progressive Democrats. Just as only four percent identify with the term “Latinx,” an invention of academics and activists, most Latinos are less interested in fighting white supremacism than in improving their livelihoods and families.

Immigration isn't turning out to be quite the winner Democrats long believed it would be. For example, there is remarkably little support among Latinos for Biden and Harris' immigration policies. The vast majority of Americans and at least half of Hispanics support deporting undocumented immigrants, according to a June CBS News poll. Most also support the idea that people must show their citizenship status to vote, a position widely rejected by progressives.

Concerns about mass undocumented immigration reflect economic reality. The Congressional Budget Office warns that the recent “surge in immigration,” which is largely undocumented, could impact the salaries of low-income workers, many of whom are Latino. Additionally, according to Pew, about half of all Latinos associate the current wave with increased crime in their communities. Those feelings may be particularly strong in places like South Texas, where once heavily Democratic areas have turned more toward the GOP.

But whatever their concerns, Latinos also bring an optimism that is desperately needed now. Like most immigrants, they still believe and value the American dream. When asked what the most important factors are for success in the United States, 94 percent responded with “a strong work ethic and hard work.” They generally want more of America, not less, and tend to be more optimistic about the future than non-Latino whites. Latinos also represent the fastest-growing population in the military, making up about 16 percent of all active-duty military personnel. The number of Latino police officers increased by over 80 percent from 1997 to 2020.

What Latinos largely want is not the end of the American dream, but access to it. However, this does not mean that they are inexorably trending permanently to the right. Although they disagree with some progressive bromides, most are working class and many support expanding the government's role in spurring growth. If they lean Republican, that's more on the populist side of Trump than the free-market libertarianism espoused by many college-educated conservatives.

In the coming decades, especially as the current wave of migrants become legal citizens, Latinos are likely to shape future America and its politics. Overall, this could be a very good thing.

Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas