Tropical formation expected in the Gulf of Mexico next week

The probability that the accumulation of disorganized showers and storms in the northwestern Caribbean will develop within the next 48 hours is now 50% and 80% over the next seven days.

Sometime this week, probably Tuesday or Wednesday, a tropical depression is likely to form en route to the northern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Although it is too early to give specifics, the NHC states: “Later this week, the system is expected to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Stakeholders along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the development of this system.”

How strong this storm might be, where it will go, and what impacts it might/might not have on us are still big questions throughout the forecast. Currently, the chances are that the storm could make landfall anywhere between Mobile and the Big Bend area of ​​Florida. Keep in mind that we cannot rely on the accuracy of the models until the storm becomes tropical and has a defined center of circulation.

Once a defined center develops in this area, the models' forecast of the track becomes clearer and more reliable. However, the probability of a hurricane somewhere along the Gulf Coast is increasing.

At the moment we can expect an increased risk of rip currents and rough surf until mid-week.

A lot can and will change between now and the end of next week, so check the forecast regularly and make sure you know your hurricane plan!