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Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

3 minutes, 55 seconds Read

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually undecided, with Harris leading voters in all seven states by just one point and maintaining a slight lead in the Upper Midwest and Nevada, while Trump Arizona leads narrowly in the Southeast and in the Southeast – but essentially Pennsylvania, which must win, is a false decision.

Important facts

According to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll Thursday, Harris has a 49% to 48% lead among voters in all seven battleground states, a statistical tie — but 14% of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning , that there is still a lot of scope for The Race for Change.

north Carolina: Harris leads 48% to 47% (margin of error 4.5 points) in a CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday, an outlier among several other polls this week showing Trump ahead, including a Fox News Poll showing him ahead 49% to 47% (or 50-49% without a third party), while in polls released last week by the Cooperative Election Study, Marist and Emerson College was at the top with 50-48%. The FiveThirtyEight average shows Trump with a lead of 1.2 points.

Georgia: Trump has a lead of 48% to 47% (margin of error 4.7) in Thursday's CNN/SSRS poll, but is 51% to 46% and 49.9% to in the CES poll (2,663 respondents). 48.4% significantly higher. in last week's Bloomberg poll, although a Marist poll had them at 49% (margin of error 3.9), and a Washington Post poll (margin of error 4.5) had Harris leading 51% to 47 % is ahead. In the FiveThirtyEight poll average, Trump is ahead by 1.8 points.

Pennsylvania: It couldn't be closer – the candidates are at 48% in the Fox News and CNN/SSRS polls released Wednesday and 49% to 49% in a CBS/YouGov poll, while Trump is at 47% to 46% Harris leads 50% to 49% in a Quinnipiac poll and 49% to 48% when Fox News eliminates third parties. Monmouth found that Trump was up 47% to 46% among all registered voters, but Harris was leading 48% to 47% among voters who voted in most elections. Overall, Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Michigan: Trump has a rare lead in a Washington Post poll released Thursday that shows him with a lead of 47% to 45%, although three other polls this week show Harris with a lead, including the Fox News poll that it showed an increase of 48% to 46% (although there is a tie at 49% with no third party), 51%-46% in the CES survey (2,336 respondents) and 48%-43% in CNN/SSRS poll – while Trump leads 49%-48% in an Emerson poll released Tuesday (margin of error 3 points) Harris leads in Michigan by 1 in FiveThirtyEight poll average .1 points up.

Wisconsin: Harris leads Trump by 50-47% in the CES poll (1,542 respondents), 51-45% in the CNN/SSRS poll and 50-49% in a Marquette poll, while Trump is ahead by 49% Up 48% in an Emerson poll and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll. Harris is up 0.7 points on the FiveThirtyEight average.

Nevada: Harris leads Trump 51% to 47% in the CES poll (933 respondents), while Trump leads 48% to 47% (margin of error 4.6 points) and Harris in a CNN/SSRS poll released Tuesday is ahead by 48.8% to 48.3 points in a Bloomberg poll from October 23 (margin of error 5). Harris is up 0.1 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Arizona: Trump is up 51% to 47% in the CES poll (2,066 respondents), and is ahead 50% to 49% (margin of error 3.7) in a Marist poll released Oct. 24 and 49 in a Washington Post poll % to 46% -Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Harris is 48% to 47% in a CNN/SSRS poll this week is at the top (margin of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight poll average.

Big number

1.4 points. That's Harris' lead in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.

Important background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 due to an intraparty revolt following his debate performance – dramatically changing the Democrats' fortunes. Before the postponement, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, although Biden won six of the seven states (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris remains ahead in four new polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in one of her key states (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads by less than one point in poll averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Almost tied in new 7th swing state (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Most polls show Trump ahead in crucial swing state (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has narrow lead – but struggles with Latino voters (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump Has Slight Advantage (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump has advantage in latest swing state poll (Forbes)

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