What is a Red Flag Warning? A look at fire danger and drought in New York and New Jersey

NEW YORK – When you think of wildfires, states like California and Colorado come to mind, and that makes sense considering that fires are very common in these regions.

New York and New Jersey are certainly not known as wildfire hotspots, but with this region experiencing an extended dry spell, the threat of wildfires has become a very real concern.

There have been several forest fires in the last few weeks, and there are currently some active forest fires.

The National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning for much of the Tri-State region Friday afternoon and evening as strong winds blow over parched ground.

Since the beginning of September, conditions have prevailed throughout the region that are conducive to the development of forest fires. That's when our current drought began to take hold. Less than two inches of rain has fallen in Central Park since September, and even less in parts of southern New Jersey where drought has become severe.

The prolonged drought has resulted in October 2024 becoming the driest month ever recorded in NYC, and also the driest October on record, with just 0.01 inches of rain.

We are also on track to have our driest fall ever if there is no rain again by November. This is a contrast to last autumn, which was one of the rainiest on record.

What is a Red Flag Warning?

Red flag warnings are designed to help fire managers recognize when not to order fires on federal lands such as protected forests. They also help the public recognize when it is unsafe to use fire outdoors, such as in a campsite.

To meet the warning criteria, ground vegetation and the soil itself must have a moisture content of less than 8%, relative humidity must be below 25%, and wind speeds of more than 15 mph for several hours are forecast. These conditions are exactly what is expected for Friday afternoon and evening.

Gusts could reach speeds of up to 56 km/h on Friday, allowing the fires to spread quickly.

Are wildfires common in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut?

While wildfires may not be as common in this area of the country as they are in the West, they can and do occur. When they do occur, they are most common in the Pine Barrens of New Jersey as well as the Meadowlands. However, wildfires can occur anywhere in the region where extensive vegetation is present.

Typically, our wildfire season occurs in the months of March and April when soil moisture is low, winds are gusty and evaporation is high. Forest fires are rare in this area in October and November, as cooler temperatures and abundant rain usually prevent fires from starting.

However, temperatures this fall have been above average, Halloween was the warmest ever recorded, and it just didn't rain. Due to climate change, all weather and natural patterns have changed, including fire patterns.

Although the Red Flag Warning was only issued for Friday, the threat of wildfires remains across the region until the pattern changes back to rain. Currently, a pattern change is not likely in the short term.