Drought is leading to a massive increase this fall

Last month, Massachusetts experienced an “unprecedented increase” in wildfires due to ongoing and worsening drought conditions across New England, state fire officials said. About 200 wildfires broke out, resulting in a sharp 1,200 percent increase over average: In a typical October, there are about 15 fires in the state.

By now it should come as no surprise that most of New England is in dire need of heavy rain this season, with many areas seeing rainfall totals fall well below normal levels. Over 80 percent of Massachusetts is experiencing unusual drought or worse, with 14 percent of the state, including the Boston region, entering a “severe drought” phase earlier this week. October ended with Boston and many other areas of the state more than 3 inches below the monthly average.

The reason? A persistent high pressure pattern has established itself over the Northeast over the past few months and is expected to remain so throughout November.

This glued dry pattern drained moisture from the soils and made the area vulnerable to wildfires. In addition to the lack of rain, higher than average temperatures and lower humidity have made ground vegetation highly flammable – and even the slightest spark poses a potential serious fire hazard.

Over half of the fires in Massachusetts occurred in the last week, leaving fire departments working overtime and searching for resources to contain these fires.

“More than a quarter of this year’s brush and forest fires occurred in October,” said Chief Fire Warden David Celino of the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation. “They accounted for more than half of the 1,158 acres burned so far this year.”

Here are the largest wildfires still considered active across the state:

• Cain Hill Fire in Salem/Lynn: Currently at 140 acres and 50 percent contained
• Middleton Pond Fire in Middleton: 188 acres and 70 percent contained
• Curry 24 Fire in Devens: 100 acres and 99 percent contained
• Pappas Fire in Canton: 32 acres and 90 percent contained
• Trader's Way Fire in Salem: 15 acres and 50 percent contained
• Maple Meadow Fire in Wilmington: 10 acres and 70 percent contained
• Wolcott Hill/Blue Hills Reservation: 2 acres and 100 percent contained
• Mt. Laurel Fire in Holden: 6 acres and 95 percent contained
• Old Forest Road Fire in North Andover: 5 acres and 30 percent contained

Warmer temperatures last month, averaging over 4 degrees warmer than average in some areas, have caused more moisture to evaporate from the soil. And without replacing moisture with rain, trees, bushes, leaves and grass become more flammable. When you introduce windy conditions, you have the makings of even small flames becoming a large wildfire.

It's not really known that there is a fall fire problem in New England; this usually happens in spring when winter is over. “The lack of tree canopy (as we transition from winter to spring) and thawing snow causes leaf litter to become a fire hazard,” said John Rogan, a geography professor at Clark University.

This fall, “relatively strong winds make these conditions more dangerous,” said James Urban, an assistant professor at Worcester Polytechnic Institute. “Dry and windy conditions can lead to very rapid fire spread. Last year (2023) there were some days of higher rainfall, which may have contributed to greater accumulation of fine fuels, which could then quickly dry out and become flammable in a drought.”

The state authorities appeal to residents to exercise caution when properly disposing of ignition sources and to avoid starting fires outdoors. Although it may be cooler this weekend, it should still remain sufficiently dry with a light breeze on Saturday and Sunday.

A red flag warning is in effect for all three states in southern New England through Friday evening and may well last through Saturday.

“Residents can be more cautious about using equipment that can cause a spark, but little can be done to prevent wildfires over large areas,” Rogan said.

Other tips include properly disposing of ashes from fireplaces and wood stoves in a metal container — don't just throw them outdoors or in the trash, officials said.

Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.