Will Election Day rain in Pennsylvania hurt Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

Some voters in Pennsylvania could be disrupted by rainy weather on Election Day, depending on where their polling place is in the state.

As Election Day approaches, meteorologists are refining their forecasts for Nov. 5 weather across the country, and rainy weather could deter some voters from going to the polls in northwestern Pennsylvania. Voters in the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will likely decide who wins the White House. Recent polls show an extremely close race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

And while more than 1.6 million ballots have already been cast in Pennsylvania due to early and mail-in voting, there could be rainy weather ahead for those who wait until Election Day.

Depending on the speed of a storm system moving through the Pacific Northwest and across the country, some voters in northwestern Pennsylvania could encounter rain while trying to cast their ballots on Tuesday, AccuWeather reported. However, newer forecasts suggest the rain may miss Pennsylvania entirely.

Studies show that rainy weather benefits the Republican Party

Bad weather has always affected people who wanted to vote. In 2007, a study from the University of Georgia, the University of California, Merced and the University of Pittsburgh found that rainy weather deterred Democrats more than Republicans. For every inch of rain, voter turnout fell by 1 percent. Snowfall also reduced voter turnout and was more likely to affect older people.

“In addition to its direct effects on voter turnout, we showed that bad weather can influence election outcomes by significantly reducing Democratic vote share in presidential elections, benefiting Republicans,” the study said.

A recent study in the journal Election studies in 2023 found that rainy weather was more likely to affect young voters in their mid-20s or younger, reducing their turnout by nearly 6 percent.

A 2018 study published in Sage Journals also found that rain “reduces the Democratic candidate's vote share by up to 2.08 percentage points, while…” increases the Republican candidate's share of the vote by 1.00 percentage points.

However, said Republican strategist Mark Weaver, who lives in Ohio Newsweek that both Republican and Democratic voters feel compelled to participate in this election and that it is unlikely that either candidate will benefit from bad weather in swing states. Weaver doubts the rain will deter members of both parties from voting on Election Day, barring a catastrophic event.

He also said Trump supporters feel an “exuberance and energy” for their candidate that is “unparalleled in modern American politics.”

Although these voters are less likely to vote because of bad weather in other election cycles, that will not be the case if Trump is on the ballot this year, Weaver said. “His supporters will move mountains to vote because they see him as the solution to the problems facing America.”

Meanwhile, Weaver said, Harris supporters are motivated more by their hatred of Trump than their love for Harris.

“Given how energetic both sides are this year and how common early voting has become, I don't know that weather will play as big a role as it would in another year,” Weaver said.

Harris could benefit given the support base

As for this Tuesday, Democratic strategist Carly Cooperman said Newsweek that bad weather could benefit Harris in the election.

“It is possible that inclement weather will cause low-propensity voters — those who have not voted in the past or are less engaged — to stay home,” Cooperman said. “These are voters that Trump is courting and how he is building his support beyond his base, so that would impact Trump's vote. Older voters may also be more inclined to stay home during inclement weather, but older voters are more divided between Trump and Harris,” and many of those voters also vote early.

“Harris' support base tends to be in more habitual voter groups and therefore she will be less affected by inclement weather,” Cooperman said.

Who won Pennsylvania in 2020?

In 2020, Trump lost to President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania by more than 80,000 votes, although Trump won the state in 2016.

On Friday, poll aggregator website FiveThirtyEight showed Trump leading Harris in Pennsylvania, 47.9 percent to 47.6 percent.

Rain is also forecast for Michigan and Wisconsin, but dry weather is forecast for North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.