If Trump loses the 2024 election, political violence could get even worse

Political violence has reached alarming levels in the USA in recent years.

The January 6, 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol, the attack on former Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband, and multiple assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump are examples of America's increasingly polarized and dangerous environment.

Now the 2024 election could cause a renewed upswing, especially if Trump loses. Discussion of violence among right-wing extremists has already skyrocketed online, and unlike Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump refused to say he would back down.

However, Trump has used violent rhetoric of his own. On Thursday, Trump criticized former Rep. Liz Cheney, an outspoken Republican critic of the former president, whom he called a “radical war hawk.”

“Let's put them there with a nine-barreled gun shooting at them, okay?” he said at a campaign rally in Arizona. “Let's see how she feels, you know, with the guns pointed at her face.”

The polls show a tight race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, suggesting that this time, as in 2020, the results could be decided by slim majorities in some battleground states. Trump is urging Republican voters to reject the results if he comes up short, making baseless claims about voter fraud in Pennsylvania and widespread non-citizen voting. Billionaire Trump supporter Elon Musk has on his social media page

This tactic seems to be working. According to a September PRRI poll, about a quarter of Republicans believe that if Trump loses, he should do whatever is necessary to ensure that he still becomes president.

This can also include resorting to violence. Among Republicans who don't believe Biden's 2020 victory was legitimate, nearly a third said in an August poll by the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University that they did “a lot” or “a lot” of politics after the victory Violence expected election in November. More recent polls have found similar results, including an AP-NORC poll in October that found 27 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of voters overall were “extremely” or “very” concerned about post-election violence.

All of this has put police and national security officials on high alert for political violence in the days before and after the election. Earlier this month, a joint intelligence bulletin from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the FBI said domestic extremists “pose a violent threat to a range of targets directly and indirectly tied to the election, at least through the inauguration of the United States.” Presidents” on January 20th.

What kind of political violence could erupt?

A number of incidents of political violence have already been recorded in the run-up to election day.

Ballots in mailboxes and drop boxes in Massachusetts, Arizona, Washington and Oregon were damaged in suspected arson. DHS warned this could happen based on monitoring online comments in domestic violent extremist circles. In a series of security bulletins in recent months, the agency noted: “Some threat actors may view ballot boxes as 'soft targets' because they are more easily accessible” and that some of these actors had discussed various methods of harming them.

A man has also been charged with terrorism and weapons possession for allegedly shooting at the Democratic National Committee offices in Phoenix three times since September.

Things could only get worse from here. Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco has warned that the US is “facing an unprecedented level and increase in threats of violence against public officials.”

According to the DHS bulletins, there is an “increased risk” that domestic violent extremists “could attempt to trigger a civil war.” This type of chatter has become increasingly common in online spaces frequented by far-right groups. However, DHS noted that prosecuting those involved in the January 6 insurrection and restraining themselves from possible false flag operations aimed at entrapping them could serve as a deterrent.

Police officers across the country are preparing for the possibility of escalation, particularly in Democratic metropolitan areas. For example, the elections office in Detroit was reportedly reinforced with bulletproof glass and protected by armed guards after Trump supporters attempted to interrupt ballot counting in 2020 by shouting “Stop the count” and banging on the windows. Election workers in Philadelphia will count ballots in a warehouse surrounded by a barbed wire fence, miles from downtown where protesters gathered in 2020.

Ultimately, however, these preparations may not be enough to quell domestic violent extremist activity as Republican leaders stoke skepticism about the integrity of the election and reportedly hatch secret plans to secure Trump a second term.

“It is important to be aware of the potential for violence and harm to the institutions on which we depend,” said retired Gen. Joseph Votel, board member of the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law at the University of Pennsylvania, in a statement. “But it is not enough in the face of legislative acts that allow for broad interpretation, strong political rhetoric that dominates the public information space, and imperfect individuals acting in accordance with their oaths.”

Update, November 1, 10:55 a.m. ET: This story was originally published Oct. 31 and updated with Trump's comments about Cheney.