Election polls may be underestimating Kamala Harris, Democrats in key states, CNN data reporter warns

CNN data reporter Harry Enten warned Tuesday that exit polls could be underestimating Vice President Kamala Harris rather than former President Trump, who has historically been underestimated in exit polls in previous cycles.

“If the polls were to underestimate Donald Trump again, it would be historically unprecedented,” Enten said. “Usually the pollsters understand, 'Hey, we're underestimating, we're not taking into account a portion of the electorate.' They make adjustments, and I think that explains why, at least in the last 52 years, we have never seen the same party being underestimated in presidential elections three times in a row.”

CNN's John Berman also asked Ducks about the 2022 midterm elections, where Democrats exceeded expectations, and what they might say about the polls in key swing states.

“What will we see in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2022? Well, it turns out that the average poll in these states actually underestimated Democrats by four points. She underestimated the Democrats by four points. And I want to apply that to the election.” “If it turns out that the Democrats were underestimated in the polls like they were in 2022, then Kamala Harris clearly wins,” Enten said.

CNN data reporter Harry Enten warned Tuesday that election polls may be underestimating Kamala Harris. (Screenshot/CNN)

According to CNN data guru, Harris is struggling with “underperformance” among young voters in the face of support from Taylor Swift

“I think a lot of people assume that Donald Trump is actually underestimated in the polls. But looking at the evidence, I think we have to wait a moment. Maybe this will happen.” Maybe it will happen. But I think there are people who underestimate the idea that Kamala Harris may be underestimated in the polls,” Enten concluded.

Enten also warned that the former president has been underestimated in the polls in the past, and although he trailed Harris earlier in the cycle, the race for the White House is effectively undecided in key swing states.

Pollster Nate Silver also warned in August that Trump had been underestimated in the last two elections.

Former President Trump arrives for a question and answer session with Pastor Paula White at the National Faith Advisory Summit on October 28, 2024 in Powder Springs, Georgia. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

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In early October, Enten said if polls were as bad as they were in 2020, Trump would win in a “disaster.”

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“What happens then? “Well, then Donald Trump wins the election with 312 electoral votes because he holds all of those battleground states on the Great Lake plus Nevada and the other states where he was in the lead – Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia,” he said at the time .