College Football Betting Tips Week 11

The away team is the favorite in eight of the twelve games we examine this week. What does that mean? Crazy things will probably happen.

Alabama at LSU (+2.5) Overall: 57.5

Andy: These are not the two best teams in the SEC, and a win in this game is no guarantee that the winner will win and make it to the College Football Playoff. But the loser is probably out unless there is mass chaos everywhere else. LSU had major problems with a mobile QB when Texas A&M traded for Marcel Reed in the Tigers' final game. But LSU also dominated the mobile Taylen Green a week earlier against Arkansas. Jalen Milroe is a better version of Reed and Green. So can LSU’s defense contain him?
The choice: ALABAMA TO COVER

Ari: If you wanted regular season playoff games, this is it. Speaking of not being able to get the Texas A&M games out of my head, I can't shake the feeling of how bad LSU looked in the second half against the Aggies. Alabama has a better offense, and when it plays at a high level, the Crimson Tide are still tough to beat. Yes, the game is at Tiger Stadium, but Alabama plays its way back into the playoffs on Saturday.
The choice: ALABAMA TO COVER

Georgia at Ole Miss (+2.5) Overall: 54.5

Andy: I ​​have no idea which version of Georgia and which version of Ole Miss are showing up in this game. If Rebels receiver Tre Harris can play, it will add more firepower to a Rebels offense that seemed unstoppable against Arkansas. Meanwhile, Georgia's defense playing against Florida looked vulnerable before a QB injury rescued them. Georgia's defense playing against Texas seemed unbeatable. We expect the Bulldogs to show up for a big game.
The Choice: GEORGIA FOR COVERAGE

Ari: What was the biggest win Lane Kiffin had at Ole Miss? There are a lot of things to like about the Rebels in this matchup, but Kiffin hasn't been able to win the big plays that will get his team over the hump. Georgia played poorly against Florida and Ole Miss scored 63 points on Saturday, but the coaches on both ends are hard to miss.
The Choice: GEORGIA FOR COVERAGE

Florida at Texas (-21.5) Overall: 48.5

Andy: Florida has played better on both ends every week, but how important will that matter when an elite opponent knows they're facing the Gators' QB3?

UPDATE: After Ari and I taped the picks show, Florida coach Billy Napier said there was a chance QB DJ Lagway (hamstring) could play on Saturday. “We haven’t ruled him out completely,” Napier said. Unless I hear Lagway playing, I'll stick with my original choice. But all eyes will be on the SEC availability reports on Wednesday and Thursday. And that line could be a serious move if Lagway is inclined to play.
The choice: TEXAS TO COVER

Ari: You can't ignore how much better Florida played, especially after the Gators won on both sides of the ball against Georgia at the line of scrimmage on Saturday. The problem? With a third-string quarterback, it seems highly unlikely that Florida will be able to score many points in Austin.
The choice: TEXAS TO COVER

Iowa at UCLA (+5.5) Overall: 44.5

Andy: We're now an Iowa Over podcast, and as promised last week, the proceeds of a bet on Iowa and Wisconsin going above 42.5 were sent to Stead Family Children's Hospital in Iowa City. However, the linemakers appear to be on the Hawkeyes' side. These amounts increase every week. Can Kaleb Johnson and company break 40 on a Friday night in Pasadena against a UCLA team that just shocked Nebraska? Maybe, but the Bruins also seemed capable of helping the cause.
The choice: OVER 44.5

Ari: The Hawkeyes thing was a bit. But with one of the most explosive running backs in college football and a unit that's starting to figure things out, Iowa has now scored 40 points alone in consecutive weeks. Additionally, UCLA had a brutal schedule and is now showing signs of life.
The choice: OVER 44.5

Michigan at Indiana (-14.5) Overall: 48.5

Andy: While we're on the topic of the linemakers finally seeing a season-long trend, they're finally agreeing with Indiana – which has won by as many as 14 points this season. Still, it's still troubling to see Michigan score more than two touchdowns in Bloomington. But if Indiana keeps playing like it has, the Hoosiers will cover.
The choice: INDIANA TO COVER

Ari: Vegas is starting to catch up to how good Indiana actually is this season. Although Michigan fought hard and competed with Oregon, the Wolverines are simply too limited offensively to compete with a team as good as Indiana. Everyone was waiting for the Hoosiers to disappoint, but Indiana has yet to beat a team by less than 14 points this season.
The choice: INDIANA TO COVER

Iowa State at Kansas (+3.5) Overall: 50.5

Andy: I included this because it is the quintessential 2024 edition of the Big 12. Ari joked on the show at the start of the conference that we need to mint a coin with +3.5 on one side and -3.5 on the other. This is a team that went undefeated last week by a margin of just 3.5 against a 2-6 team. The Big 12, ladies and gentlemen!
The choice: KANSAS MONEY LINE

Ari: I've gone on record saying that Iowa State is a dangerous team that could surprise some people this year. I'm not going to buy into the idea that the Cyclones are good enough to win the Big 12 because they suffered a tough loss that the vast majority of teams before Iowa State suffered.
The choice: IOWA STATE TO COVER

Miami at Georgia Tech (+11.5) Overall: 63.5

Andy: I think Mario Cristobal can put an end to all the kneeling jokes with a decisive win against the team he didn't want to win against last year. Will QB Haynes King play for Georgia Tech this week? Will it matter as long as Cam Ward plays for Miami?
The choice: MIAMI TO COVER

Ari: It feels like Miami's defense will catch up at some point this year. But all Miami does is keep winning. Why? Because the offense led by Cam Ward is the best offense in college football. Even if Miami's defense gives up some points, I have a hard time imagining Georgia Tech being able to stay within 12 points.
The choice: MIAMI TO COVER

Colorado at Texas Tech (+3.5) Overall: 62.5

Andy: It's time to bring out our custom Big 12 coin for another 3.5 point spread. Colorado has gotten better every week and Travis Hunter just had a week off to get healthier. If the Buffaloes can win this game, they have a realistic path to the Big 12 title game.
The choice: COLORADO TO COVER

Ari: Colorado is having a fantastic season. Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are in the headlines, but the Buffaloes' ranks played much better than we expected. If it gets eliminated and beats Texas Tech, Colorado could legitimately control its own fate in the College Football Playoff by Sunday.
The choice: COLORADO TO COVER

Oklahoma at Missouri (-2.5) Overall: 42.5

Andy: Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said he expects QB Brady Cook (ankle, hand) to return at some point this season. This line suggests that this is not the case this week. (That means the line could shift significantly if we learn Cook can play.) If it's a Drew Pyne game, Oklahoma's defense is good enough to keep the score low enough for the Sooners have a chance. With guard Jacob Sexton “out for a while,” according to Brent Venables last week, Oklahoma’s blocking will remain an adventure on every play.
The choice: Shrugging EMOJI – OK, OKLAHOMA TO COVER

Ari: Oklahoma's offensive line has been a problem all season and has now suffered another injury at the top. While we're not sure if Brady Cook will play for Missouri, the Sooners simply haven't been a viable team in SEC play.
The Choice: MISSOURI TO COVER

South Carolina at Vanderbilt (+3.5) Overall: 46.5

Andy: What happens when the two most dangerous teams face off in the middle of their conference? We're about to find out. South Carolina's offensive line played better than it has in years against Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt allowed virtually nothing on the ground against an Auburn team that had outscored everyone else. This feels like a coin toss, and luckily we have our Big 12 3.5 point coin that we will only use once for an SEC game.
The Choice: SOUTH CAROLINA TO COVER

Ari: Talk about an impossible game to pick. Both teams played at a really high level, but I just can't remember how well the Gamecocks played in Saturday's loss to Texas A&M. LaNorris Sellers is a special talent, Rocket Sanders is one of the best running backs in the game and the lines are really good.
The Choice: SOUTH CAROLINA TO COVER

Washington at Penn State (-13.5) Overall: 45.5

Andy: The Huskies leaned forward in the red zone to beat USC. Penn State failed in the red zone and lost to Ohio State. Penn State has a much better roster and the Nittany Lions defense should be able to contain Washington's offense enough to win the game, but that seems like a lot of points.
The Choice: WASHINGTON TO COVER

Ari: This seems like a difficult situation for a heartbroken Penn State team. The Nittany Lions are a one-dimensional team, but they are still much better than Washington. This will be a white out, but imagine if Penn State had beaten Ohio State. There's still a lot to play for Penn State, but 13.5 seems like too many points. Penn State wins, but not enough.
The Choice: WASHINGTON TO COVER

BYU at Utah (+4.5) Overall: 42.5

Andy: The last time these two teams met as conference opponents was 2010, and there couldn't be a more bitter rivalry in the country. That's probably why the margin is so small, even though one of the teams is undefeated and the other is having its worst season in more than 20 years. Whether it's Isaac Wilson or Brandon Rose, it's still hard to imagine the Utes putting up enough points to beat BYU unless some pure rivalry magic happens.
The choice: BYU TO COVER

Ari: Name one thing that went well for Utah this year. Yes, the Holy War is a bitter rivalry as strange things often happen in games like this, but BYU is a much better football team this year. This is my North Star when choosing this product.
The choice: BYU TO COVER