Fox News poll: Harris wipes out Trump's lead on Michigan economy

Less than a week before Election Day, the latest Fox News poll of likely voters in Michigan finds Vice President Kamala Harris two points ahead of former President Donald Trump in the expanded vote. That's partly because Michigan voters are divided over who would handle the economy better.

The new poll shows Harris supported by 48% of likely voters, Trump by 46% and third-party candidates by 5%. When it comes to just the two main candidates, the race is absolutely even: 49% each.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump over the summer, but he remains on the ballot in Michigan. He has 3% support, including 4% of two-way Trump supporters and 1% of Harris supporters defecting to him.

Among registered voters, Harris is up 4 points in the expanded ballot, a 6-point shift since July, when Trump was up 2 points. The July results were determined shortly after President Joe Biden left office and endorsed Harris, but before she was finalized as the nominee and Kennedy dropped out.

All Harris-Trump election results among registered and likely voters are within the margin of error.

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Given the presence of several other candidates, it makes sense that none of the candidates matched their party's 2020 vote share – 50.6% Biden, 47.8% Trump. The conventional wisdom is that support for third-party candidates wanes in the final two weeks before the election, which could further tighten the race.

The remainder of the analysis focuses on likely voters and the expanded ballot (unless otherwise noted).

Part of Harris' advantage comes from the small subset of independents who support her over Trump (44-35%) and some non-MAGA Republicans who defect to her (21% Harris, 67% Trump). Almost one in ten of these groups supports Kennedy.

Overall, more Democrats support Harris (95%) than Republicans support Trump (90%).

There are also gender and educational differences. Women support Harris by 17 points, men support Trump by 16 points. White voters with a college degree support Harris by 5 points, while white voters without a degree support Trump by 13 points.

A difficult situation for Harris is black voters. Although an overwhelming majority support her (81%), that is 12 points below the 93% who voted for Biden in 2020, according to Michigan Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA).

Overall, Harris' best groups are suburban women, urban voters and voters under 35.

Trump's best groups include men, rural voters and whites without college degrees.

The economy has been the main theme this cycle and Trump has largely dominated on that front, both nationally and in the battlegrounds. But now Harris is almost neck-and-neck with Trump on Michigan's economy. Voters believe that Trump can handle the economy better by just two percentage points. Earlier this year, Trump was 11 points ahead of Biden (among registered voters) on this issue.

Trump also does better on the Middle East conflict (+6 points better managed) and on immigration (+16).

Harris is considered better on abortion (+18 points) and election integrity (+10).

Among those who say Trump can handle immigration better, 12% support Harris on the ballot, while 14% of those who say Harris can handle abortion better support Trump.

Voters give Harris the advantage of having the right temperament (+10), helping the middle class (+10), protecting American democracy (+6) and fighting for people like you (+6).

The candidates are rated roughly equally for making necessary changes (Harris +2), speaking their minds (Harris +1) and being a strong leader (Trump +3).

“Harris has wiped out Trump's lead on the economy, undermining one of the main arguments for his candidacy,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News poll with Republican Daron Shaw. “At the same time, Harris has built advantages in temperament and electoral integrity, potentially positioning himself as the less risky choice for some voters.”

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Since February, more than four in 10 registered voters in Michigan feel they are falling behind financially, up from 45% today. Another 42% say they are remaining stable, while 14% say they are making progress.

Republicans, independents and rural voters are the ones most likely to feel like they're falling behind.

“Although the race is close, Michigan always seemed to be the toughest of the blue wall states for Trump,” Shaw said. “The most important development here is that Harris has convinced women in business. We’ll see if Trump’s final pitch of their plans to favor electric vehicles and regulate the auto industry is strong enough to bring the issue back on track.”

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A few more things…

— Since July, Harris's favorable rating among registered voters has risen 2 points, while Trump's has fallen 3 points.

— Over a third of likely voters in Michigan (36%) say they voted, voting for Harris by a 39-point margin. Among those who haven't voted yet and are sure they will (54%), Trump leads by 18 points.

— In the race for U.S. Senate in Michigan, Democrat Elissa Slotkin has a 4-point lead among likely voters over Republican Mike Rogers (51-47%). Among registered voters, Slotkin is 51-46% – the same as in July.

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This Fox News poll was conducted October 24-28, 2024, co-led by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), and includes interviews with a sample of 1,275 Michigan registered voters randomly drawn from a nationwide voter file were selected. Respondents spoke to live interviewers on landlines (157) and cell phones (770) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (348). Results based on the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points and for the subsample of 988 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model based on past voting history, interest in the current election, age, education, race, ethnicity, church attendance and marital status.