The odds for the presidential election are changing: what polls say, bettors say

How the betting markets changed in October

At Polymarket, Trump and Harris' win probabilities were 49% as of October 3rd. Since then, Trump's chances of defeating Harris rose last week to their highest level since July 21, the day President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.

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The initial surge in Trump's chances of winning was accompanied by a slight increase in his poll numbers in battleground states like Pennsylvania in October. However, some questioned the rapid and significant increase in his probability of winning. They suggested that one or more wealthy players could be manipulating the betting markets. Polymarket officials have said they are investigating these claims.

Last week, the gap between Trump and Harris' chances of winning was as wide as the gap between Biden and Trump in the 2020 election. Since then, it has narrowed while polls in battleground states have remained stable. Biden's lead in the polls in 2020 was almost three times that between Trump and Harris.

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Bettors rate Trump's probability of winning higher than in previous elections

Trump's probability of winning is now several percentage points below the high the campaign reached on the opening day of the Republican National Convention. As of July 16, his odds of defeating Biden were over 70% on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.

According to a 2004 article in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the clear betting favorite only lost twice in the month before the election, in 1916 and 1948. Betting markets also failed to predict Trump's victory in 2016.