Why this safe New Hampshire district could be good news for House Democrats

But that didn't happen. And four months later, this race now tells a very different story, one that reflects Democrats' regained chances to flip the House after Biden withdrew to make way for Vice President Kamala Harris.

“It was a sea change,” Pappas said after a debate with his Republican challenger Russell Prescott earlier this month at Saint Anselm College, Manchester.

“We can measure that by the number of people who come through our office and want to knock on doors or make phone calls,” he said, “and so there is really significant capacity in the Democratic coordination campaign right now that will help.” us.”

As Election Day approaches, polls show Pappas ahead of Prescott — whose campaign has yet to run television ads or attract investment from national Republicans who could attack the incumbent Democrat.

It's not just Pappas who is doing better than expected in November. The shift from Biden to Harris has energized similarly positioned Democrats across the country thanks to renewed enthusiasm and energy, while shrinking the field of truly competitive seats to its smallest size in years.

“The House battleground is more favorable to Democrats than it was when Biden was the nominee,” said Dave Wasserman, senior election analyst at Cook Political Report, a leading political handicapper.

In New Hampshire, he said, “Pappas probably still would have been the favorite, but it would have been more difficult if Biden had remained the nominee. “Democratic turnout could have plummeted in a way that could have given Prescott a fighting chance.”

Before Biden dropped out, Republicans boasted about targeting Democratic incumbents in seemingly safe seats, not to mention more competitive seats like Pappas'.

In July, Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told Punchbowl News he had a message For Democrats, Biden narrowly won: “We got you.” He added that the GOP was also targeting seats where Biden won by 11 percentage points or more. (Biden won Pappas' district by 6 points in 2020.)

The The race in New Hampshire's 1st District is now rated as “likely Democratic” by the Cook Political Report, with just 25 seats listed as possible picks for either party. Under the current narrow GOP majority, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to regain control of the House. With Republicans looking to take control of the Senate, the outcome of the House battle will have a significant impact on the next presidency, no matter who wins.

In evenly divided districts like New Hampshire's First, the support of voters from both parties is necessary for each candidate. At a diner in Londonderry where Skip and Lana Stearns were having breakfast on a Thursday, there were signs that Pappas was well on his way to winning the title.

Skip, who owns a longtime towing company in Londonderry, plans to vote for Trump, as does his wife. But even though he doesn't want to vote for either Pappas or Prescott — “I hate them both,” he said — Lana plans to vote for Pappas.

“He’s doing a good job,” she said.

Although Prescott needs the Stearnses electorate to compete, he said he also gets crossover support.

“In my case, people come up to me and say, 'I'm not going to vote for Donald Trump, but I'm going to vote for you,'” he said.

If the trend lines in Pappas' race represent how House Democrats are strengthening their coalitions, a district 80 miles up Interstate 95, north of the Seacoast Region, shows how challenging the party's overall task remains.

In Maine's 2nd Congressional District, Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat, is defending one of the most Trump-heavy districts held by a Democrat. Like Pappas, Golden has been winning since 2018, but Republicans are optimistic about his challenger, former race car driver Austin Theriault, and their chances of protecting their majority by flipping a seat that Trump won by 6 points in 2020 has. So far, there has been nearly $20 million in outside spending from both sides – almost evenly split between the two candidates – to influence the contest.

Despite the lack of outside attention in New Hampshire, both candidates insisted the race remains closely contested.

Before his debate against Pappas, Prescott said it was “certainly” a neck-and-neck race. “When people get to know me. . . You vote for me,” he said. “We win.”

Prescott is a lifelong New Hampshire resident who previously served in the state Senate and Executive Council. He has the pedigree of a potential member of Congress. His soft-spoken style and political focus are at odds with the far-right MAGA tone that prevails in many districts – including in the last election here, when combative Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt mounted a failed challenge to Pappas.

Asked whether national Republican players like the NRCC declined to invest in his race, Prescott demurred. However, he disagreed at length when asked whether Pappas had worked to make himself an unattractive target.

“It’s a lack of performance,” Prescott said of Pappas. “We are worse off than we were two years ago. We're worse off than we were four years ago.” The Republican argued that the district “needs to look for someone who has the independence, who is able to work across the aisle and make sure we get something done.”

However, this appeal is already a central part of the Pappas brand. While he frequently supports the agenda of the Biden administration and House leadership, he has also been praised as someone who frequently works with Republicans. Last year, Georgetown University's Lugar Center ranked him the third most bipartisan member of Congress and the most bipartisan Democrat.

Pappas said he has “built a reputation as a pragmatic Democrat who works on the other side, and I think that will, you know, bear some fruit this fall.”

Still, Pappas said, “In my opinion, we're 10 votes behind and we run every campaign that way.” I don't take anything for granted. There are a lot of people who counted on us two years ago and we continue to do what we needed to do to build a coalition.”

But for Pappas and many Democrats running in similar districts across the country, the clearest sign of this election year's trend lines was in scenes like the one that unfolded outside the debate hall at Saint Anselm.

On the side of the road, more than a dozen Pappas volunteers held signs as cars honked, and across the street stood a handful of Prescott supporters doing the same.

One of the Pappas volunteers, Teresa McInerny from Epping, said the “nervous energy” of the election had mobilized people to get out and organize for Pappas and other candidates who were not elected.

The Biden transition has “reinvigorated people,” she said. “As much as we all love Joe Biden.”

Sam Brodey can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him @sambrodey.