Who to follow if you want to be the first to know who will win the 2024 election

TV channels plan elections carefully. You'll have to go online tonight if you want to get a sense of the results before the country's election offices can call up what they see.

Here are some names you should follow to find out the result first.

Nate Cohn.Election observersThe “Election Point Man” may or may not be running the outlet's famous “Needle”: a predictive guide to who will vote for each state.

It was The Needle that, in one of the big moments of the 2020 election, suddenly showed Biden ahead in Georgia after he temporarily went offline. That moment, which Cohn tweeted with a reference to Twin Peaks, announced Trump's defeat.

A strike by the company's Tech Guild has put The Needle at risk, to the dismay of tweeting election watchersa. The best way to follow Cohn, who will run the model on his own computer if it is not for public use, is via The New York Times.

Nate Silver. The nationally recognized election analyst, whose model declared the race a coin toss, will publish its own election night model on Silver Bulletin, its Substack. You can also find him on Twitter, where he's sure to have a prominent presence tonight.

Dave Aquarius. Wasserman, who works for Cook Political Report, is known for calling an election after declaring he had “seen enough.” Trust his reading of the data, although you'll have to find it through NBC News since he works for their decision department tonight.

G. Elliott Morris. Morris replaced Silver at FiveThirtyEight, his old polling place. Follow him on Twitter.

Dan Pfeiffer. We will have early results from Florida. Here's what Pfeiffer, the former Obama aide, will observe there: “Osceola County, which is near Orlando, is more than half Latino and a third of the population is Puerto Rican. If Harris overperforms in Osceola, it could be the first evidence of a backlash against the offensive joke told at the Trump rally. Such a backlash would be a big deal in Pennsylvania, where there are more than 300,000 Puerto Ricans of voting age.”

Jon Ralston. Ralston is yours Guide to Nevada's 6 electoral votes. He predicted a narrow Harris victory here. Following him in 2020 gave you confidence that Biden had enough to beat Trump.

Conor Sr. Sen served as a good clue as to why Biden came out ahead despite discouraging early data in 2020. He outlined the Georgia counties to watch to see how margins change compared to 2020.

Adam Carlson. Carlson summarized the subgroups in national surveys. He is skeptical that they are accurate. If so, Trump probably won.