Business owners and voters in Erie, Pennsylvania could help elect the White House

ERIE, Pa. (AP) — It wasn't much when he bought it, but Michael Hooks has made the old garage his own sanctuary. And the city of Erie knows it. Half a dozen cars honk past on an October afternoon, people hang out of their car windows and wave.

About a dozen cars wait in the shop for service, while a dog Hooks adopted the day before barks in his new cage. Exercise equipment, motorcycles and power tools line the kitchen on the side of the renovated building, where his wife cooks a meal. Hooks is 1.80 m tall and has a strong build. He has a graying beard and a curly head that he says could be covered in snow flurries this time of year.

“I must be one of the few black businesses on this street,” he says, pointing out that his workshop is on Peach Street, one of the city’s main arteries. He is happy about the greetings from passers-by. But he says many people who know him from the neighborhoods where he grew up will never set foot in the store. Almost all of his customers are white.

Hooks, 58, is part of a sought-after demographic in this year's election — a Black man and an entrepreneur in a swing state. Both presidential campaigns are targeting black entrepreneurs with their messages, offering a range of economic policies and legislation that both sides say will improve the careers and lives of African Americans.

How Erie business owners and voters like Hooks view each candidate's economic vision could determine control of the White House. Erie County has voted for the candidate who won Pennsylvania in every presidential election since 1992. Both Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris have visited the city of 94,000 in recent weeks.

“Erie is a hub,” said Rhonda Matthews, co-founder of Erie Black Wall Street, a business group that supports local Black entrepreneurs. From population to business formation, the future of Erie's economy and politics has shown where the country could be headed. “I think if you want to know what’s happening broadly economically in the country, you can look at what’s happening in Erie.”

Concerns about “lack of predictability”

Harris has put forward a series of economic proposals aimed at improving affordability and boosting small businesses. Trump has emphasized his promise of sweeping tariffs, new corporate tax cuts and an unprecedented crackdown on illegal and legal immigration into the country.

Local leaders are weighing the impact of each agenda on their plans to renew the Rust Belt.

“Lack of predictability would be the worst thing,” said Drew Whiting, CEO of the Erie Downtown Development Corporation, which is driving more than $100 million in private investment downtown.

Whiting praised federal policies such as the Qualified Opportunity Zones, designed to spur economic development in low-income communities and created as part of the Trump administration's tax reform in 2017, as well as the investments in Erie made possible by the bipartisan infrastructure bill led by Democratic President Joe Biden.

But Whiting added that “broad” measures like Trump's proposed 20% tariffs on all foreign goods “threaten to be an inflation bomb that would crush small businesses” like the ones he works with. Whiting viewed Harris' proposed investments for small businesses as a potential boon. A no-tax-on-tips policy, which both Harris and Trump support, would be a welcome change for workers, he said.

The Harris campaign focused on affordability as a key concern for voters amid rising inflation. Her proposals to penalize companies that inflate prices and her promises to expand support for health care and child care are issues that the campaign believes can reduce costs for working families. By contrast, Trump would cut the corporate tax rate to 15%, expand his tax cuts, and further reduce other individual and family taxes, including by eliminating Social Security taxes.

Most mainstream economists agree on this Trump's proposals would worsen inflation.

Local business owners who spoke to The Associated Press expressed cautious optimism about Harris' proposals to help small businesses, although most were largely skeptical about the impact of federal policies on their lives.

“There are just so many factors, things to consider from here and global factors,” said Gus Paliouras, owner of New York Lunch, a local restaurant. Paliouras' family emigrated to the United States from Greece and bought the restaurant in 1970, when it was one of dozens of busy businesses, along with a post office, a school and a church. Now Paliouras' diner is the only storefront left in the area.

“I’m trying to keep it like Geneva here,” he said, referring to the city in famously neutral Switzerland. “In this city, Trump, Kamala and Kennedy supporters could sit right next to each other at the bar.” Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was in the race until August, when he paused his campaign and endorsed Trump.

A business owner sees the divisions in his city

Hooks considers himself a survivor.

Hooks was born and raised in Erie. He grew up in poverty and had few options, support or guidance in his life. At 23, he was sentenced to 30 years in prison for marijuana trafficking. He served eight years in prison, an experience he described as “the best thing that ever happened to me.”

Prison was the first place where Hooks was exposed to scripture – the Bible and the Koran – as well as stories of travel, business and history.

Although he has changed his circumstances and overcome “trials and difficulties that have made me a better person,” he believes the distinctions some make between poor, working-class, and middle-class people are meaningless.

“That’s because we have people in this country who want to be better than someone else,” he said in a recent interview. “You drive a Toyota Camry, I drive the Lexus. It's the same… car. It’s just a different name, but it’s a higher status.”

“For example, (Harris) says she wants to give us a $50,000 tax break or whatever,” he added, referring to the vice president's proposed new small business tax credit. “But that could never come to fruition if people think they're better than anyone, but you live next door to me and your sign says Trump.”

In addition to his car care business, Hooks now runs a food catering business. On weekends, he travels back to the neighborhoods where he grew up to feed, clothe and cut the children's hair for free. His charitable efforts focus on ensuring that children never have to go through the same experiences he did again.

Hooks is skeptical about politicians' ability to change fundamental problems facing everyday Americans, but says he will vote for Harris.

“Trump had the opportunity to be great,” Hooks said, but called Trump’s first term a “disaster.” Hooks said he prefers to “go with someone who will at least try to help the little guy.”