Blue Mirage, Red Mirage Meaning: Why early 2024 election results may be misleading

In 2020, former President Donald Trump posted on Twitter that he was poised to win the election as early results on the East Coast showed him with a significant lead. However, that initial advantage soon diminished and then disappeared as more mail-in and absentee ballots were counted — typically in favor of Democratic candidates.

This sequence of events highlighted what analysts call a “red mirage” and “blue mirage,” where early indications of candidates from specific parties can be misleading due to the order in which different types of ballots are processed and counted in each state .

Due to increased mail-in voting during the COVID-19 pandemic, the “red mirage” was a major factor in the 2020 race, but could become less important in 2024 after the pandemic ends. However, it remains important to understand these mirages to avoid jumping to conclusions about the election outcome.

What is a red mirage?

The “red mirage” phenomenon refers to early election results that are skewed in favor of Republican candidates, particularly in states where in-person votes are counted first. Republican voters traditionally tend to vote in person on Election Day, and those votes are often reported first, creating a temporary Republican advantage. This pattern was evident in both 2020 and 2022, as the early Republican lead shifted in several battleground states as mail-in and absentee ballots were added.

This effect was particularly clear in the 2020 presidential election, in which Trump initially appeared to be leading in several key states before being overtaken by Joe Biden in the counting of postal votes. Trump took advantage of this shift to claim without evidence that the election was “stolen.” Analysts say the red mirage effect could lead to similar claims this year if vote counts against Trump shift while mail-in ballots are counted.

The red mirage effect is particularly pronounced in states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin due to delayed counting of mail-in ballots, which often favor Democratic candidates.

What is a Blue Mirage?

Conversely, the “blue mirage” effect occurs when states count absentee or absentee ballots first, giving Democratic candidates an early, temporary lead. This was particularly evident in North Carolina during the 2020 election, where early results favored Biden until in-person votes were counted, making the race tighter at the end of the night.

In states like Georgia and Arizona that begin counting mail-in ballots before Election Day elections, this effect can lead to an early apparent Democratic lead that then narrows as more Republican-leaning ballots are counted later in the evening.

Who will win in the US election results?

Given these mirage effects, early reporting on the 2024 election could be misleading about who will win.

Polls close at different times depending on the state, usually between 7:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. local time. Counties typically begin reporting results shortly thereafter, although it can take hours or even days for final results.

CNN predicted Trump won Kentucky, Indiana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, Texas, Wyoming, South Dakota, North Dakota, Louisiana, West Virginia, Utah, Kansas, Iowa, Mississippi and Montana . Harris has now secured Vermont, Maryland, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Rhode Island, Illinois, Colorado, New York, California and Massachusetts.

Before the election, Harris had a modest lead over Trump in three out of four of the most reliable national polling averages reviewed by Newsweek. Polling aggregator 538 showed her leading by 1.2 points, with 48 percent of likely voters supporting her, compared to 46.8 percent for Trump. The RealClearPolitics average alone showed Trump slightly ahead, with 48.4 percent compared to Harris' 48.1 percent — a narrow 0.3-point lead.

While Harris has been leading in national polls like Hillary Clinton in 2016, she has struggled to secure an Electoral College victory.

As of Monday, Trump had a 52 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, with Harris at 48 percent, according to 538 forecasts. The updated model reflected several late polls that favored Trump in key swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Nate Silvers Silver Bulletin Trump was also in the lead, with a 53.8 percent chance compared to Harris' 46.2 percent.

What happened in the 2020 election?

The 2020 election was a vivid example of the effect of red and blue mirages. During this election, Democratic candidates overwhelmingly supported mail-in voting due to concerns about COVID-19. By early election night, Trump was leading in states like Pennsylvania, Georgia and Wisconsin based on ballots cast in person on Election Day. However, Biden's numbers rose as mail-in ballots were counted. In Pennsylvania, Biden initially trailed Trump by more than 600,000 votes on election night, but ultimately won the state as mail-in votes were counted in the following days, turning the election in his favor.