“Red Fata Morgana” and “Blue Shift”: Understanding Early Election Results

Historical trends of partisan differences in voting methods mean that in-person voting results tend to favor Republicans. However, as more absentee and absentee ballots are processed, state results could shift back in favor of Democrats.

In 2020, Donald Trump declared victory early, while early vote counting gave him the edge in the race as his voters were more inclined to cast their votes in person. He then claimed the election was stolen when mailed ballots helped give President Joe Biden the votes needed to win the White House.

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, key swing states, are by law not allowed to begin processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, meaning counting could take days. The chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party suggested in an interview on MSNBC on Monday that the state could show a red mirage in this election before a blue shift.