Nevada is still too close to call as Trump nears the presidency

Nevadans go to bed on election night not knowing which presidential candidate won the state's six electoral votes – even though the state's ultimate outcome will not decide the presidency.

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is too close to call as of midnight on Election Day, with nearly 1.1 million votes reported. Trump currently has a 5 percentage point lead, with numerous Election Day votes and late mail-in ballots, including those cast today, still to be tabulated.

(Click here to see full results.)

Although multiple news outlets declared Trump the winner of the presidency on Tuesday night, the results of the presidential contest in Nevada will determine whether he wins all seven battleground states, as he is expected to win the remaining six. When Trump won in 2016, he carried every battleground that year except Nevada.

The Republicans have now gained control of the US Senate, but Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is in a tough fight against Republican Sam Brown, who has done worse than Trump, especially in Washoe County.

That means the only undecided federal chamber is the U.S. House of Representatives, where two of the three Democratic-held seats in Nevada are still too close to call, and Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) is in the 4th District , which includes parts of Clark County and rural Nevada.

Since Harris first entered the race in July, polls have remained flat between the two, with neither candidate able to build a lead large enough to predict the winner. Both candidates invested significant time and resources in the state.

Trump changed the political terrain in Las Vegas in June when he promised to eliminate the tax on tips; Harris followed in August with her own proposal to eliminate taxes on tips and raise the minimum wage in Las Vegas. Trump made personal appearances at roundtables and rallies to shore up support among Latino, Asian and Pacific Islanders, while Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, made multiple visits to the state and notable surrogates, including former President Barack Obama and Bill Clinton were present at the early vote to underscore its importance.

Both candidates made dueling stops in Las Vegas and Reno on October 31, making their closing arguments to Nevada voters. Voters were inundated with advertising from every campaign on every medium; The Harris campaign even lit up the Sphere.

Tuesday night's results underscore how close the race is – at least in Nevada.

Voter turnout is currently around 1.1 million. In 2020, Nevada saw record turnout of more than 1.4 million votes. Because numbers on mail-in ballots cast on Election Day are not available, voter turnout this year is difficult to predict.

Because the race is too close, the winner will likely be determined based on mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day. Republicans have unsuccessfully sued to block the counting of those mail-in ballots, which can be received by Saturday, as well as unstamped mail-in ballots, which are received by Friday at 5 p.m.

In 2022, about 6 percent of votes in Clark County and 3 percent of votes in Washoe County were received after Election Day. However, it is unclear how many votes are outstanding this year, as voter turnout tends to be much higher in presidential elections.

Trump is trying to become the first Republican to win a presidential election in Nevada since George W. Bush in 2004. Since then, Democrats have been able to win by building a strong enough firewall in Clark County, where 70 percent of voters live, to counter Republican vote totals in swinging Washoe County and ruby-red rural counties.

That formula has been threatened this cycle by a dwindling voter registration advantage. On Election Day 2020, Democrats had a voter registration advantage of about 5 percentage points; in 2024 it was only 1 percent.

In Clark County, which President Joe Biden won by 9 percentage points, the Democrats' lead in voter registration had fallen to less than 7 percentage points by Election Day.

But rather than representing Republican gains, the biggest change in voter registration dynamics has been an explosion in nonpartisan registration — boosted by the state's rollout of automatic voter registration in 2020.

Trump's path to victory in the state is to ensure that Republicans achieve higher voter turnout than Democrats, as has been the case in previous cycles, while Harris must win over independent voters by a large enough margin to weaken the Democratic firewall in the state Clark County to overcome.

Of the roughly 1 million votes included in the initial results, Trump maintained a lead of about 4 percentage points over Harris — similar to the turnout advantage of registered Republicans over registered Democrats in the same votes. This suggests that the referees have so far been evenly distributed between the two candidates.

In trying to win nonpartisan voters, the Harris campaign relied on the traditional organizational strengths of Nevada Democrats – the Reid Machine mix of union activists, state party officials, campaign organizers and interest groups whose formidable game has defeated Democrats in the past left to the state. To that end, the powerful Culinary Workers' Union Local 226 has opened more than 900,000 doors this cycle.

Trump, meanwhile, is banking on economic discontent in a state that has the highest unemployment rate in the country and gains among voters of color — especially Latino men.

Both campaigns have spent enormous sums to get their message across to voters — about $122 million in total. Democrats spent significantly more money in the presidential campaign than Republicans, both within the Harris campaign itself and with allied outside groups. Harris-backed spending totaled about $85 million, while Trump and his allies contributed nearly $36 million.

Although the Nevada election is still too close to call, the state was ultimately irrelevant to either candidate's path to 270 votes.

However, in the US Senate it will decide the size of the Republican majority. After flipping Democratic seats in Ohio and West Virginia, Republicans will now have control of the upper chamber.

The races in five swing states — including Nevada — are still too close to call. Republican Sam Brown has a lead of less than half a percentage point – meaning Rosen is overtaking Harris.