From the Israel-Gaza war to Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump's victory will send shockwaves around the world

If Donald Trump returns to the White House, as now seems likely, the international outlook faces a major shakeup. Maybe even a wild ride.

The most dramatic change would be the war in Ukraine. The only way Ukraine was able to stop Russia's advance toward Kiev was thanks to NATO's enormous financial support.

Although Ukraine is not a member of NATO, thanks to the support of this alliance, it has been able to compete with a much larger and better equipped army.

The United States is NATO's largest donor, and Trump has made clear his disdain for the alliance. He believes that for too long the United States has admitted many countries into NATO that have not paid their fair share.

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Adding to Trump's dislike of NATO is his mysterious relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump appears to have a closer relationship with Putin than he lets on. He would not say whether he had contact with Putin in the past year.

This becomes important when it comes to Ukraine. Trump said on CNN in May 2023 that he could end the Ukraine war “in 24 hours.”

“They are dying, Russians and Ukrainians,” Trump said. “I want them to stop dying. And I’ll get it done – I’ll get it done in 24 hours.”

Trump then said he would meet Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

In my travels to Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February 2022, it has become clear that both Ukraine's leadership and public have been fixated on this US presidential election.

There is a strong belief in Ukraine that in order to end the war within 24 hours, or at least quickly, Trump would bring both leaders together and tell them that they need to lay down their weapons and get away with what they currently have – and that would be catastrophic for Ukraine.

In this scenario, Ukraine's territory would shrink by 20 percent overnight, which Russia has already captured. This, in turn, would most likely cause enormous divisions and recriminations within Ukraine – people would be angry that they had lost thousands of people in a war that a US president then rewarded Russia for starting by giving them a fifth of Ukraine .

Many would blame Zelensky for his failure to win. And many would blame the West – particularly the US – for not allowing Ukraine to attack inside Russia and for not providing Ukraine with what it needs most, especially fighter jets like F-16s.

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Changes with China that would send shockwaves around the world

The second major likely change in international affairs concerns China. Kamala Harris would most likely have maintained a more predictable approach to China – strategic competition, economic competition, but an attempt to keep the conflict at the lowest possible level.

But Trump might be completely different. During the election campaign, he made it clear that he sees China as the greatest threat to US economic prosperity.

He has signaled that he will try to stem the flow of Chinese goods into the U.S. by imposing steep tariffs on Chinese goods. He has suggested tariffs against China could be as high as 60 percent.

This would lead to significant shocks in world trade. A new and painful trade war between the US and China would not only harm both countries, but would also damage trust around the world.

Australia would not be as badly affected as many other countries. However unpredictable Trump may be, he and much of the senior U.S. political leadership view Australia as a loyal ally.

During Trump's first presidency, Australia managed to accommodate Trump's tariff push, with Australian aluminum and steel largely exempted. This is due in large part to then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

Trump will give more support to Israel

And finally the Middle East. Kamala Harris would have been tougher on Israel than Trump. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently visited Washington – during a meeting, Harris made it clear that she was unhappy with the number of civilians killed by Israel in Gaza.

In contrast, Trump has repeatedly made it clear that Israel should be allowed to “finish the job.”

Few people seem to know what exactly that means.

What is clear, however, is that Trump would support Israel much more than Harris did.

“Wild” is one of Donald Trump’s favorite words.

The world can now brace itself for what could be a wild ride.

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