Projected path, spaghetti models for storm

According to the National Hurricane Center, Rafael was upgraded to a hurricane Tuesday evening and is expected to pass over the Cayman Islands after passing near Jamaica earlier in the day.

Rafael was located about 25 miles southeast of Little Cayman, with maximum sustained winds around 75 mph and stronger gusts as of 7 p.m. ET Tuesday.

The hurricane center said it is expected to move northwest over the next two to three days and that the storm will move over western Cuba by Wednesday.

“Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next approximately 24 hours,” the hurricane center said in its statement Tuesday afternoon, adding that the storm is expected to hit near or over Cuba on Wednesday evening.

Hurricane Rafael Path Tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely direction of the storm center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is expected to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Rafael spaghetti models

The figures cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

“Tropical storm conditions” are expected in Cuba and parts of Florida

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands through Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of west-central Cuba and the lower and central Florida Keys on Wednesday and Wednesday evening.

Rainfall amounts of between 3 and 6 inches were forecast in areas of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, as well as southern and western Cuba, with up to 10 inches forecast in isolated areas of higher terrain.

Precipitation will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern U.S. during the middle to later part of the week, and rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and central Florida Keys, according to the hurricane center.

Gabe Hauari is a nationally featured news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

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