A political realignment | City Journal

Tuesday evening signaled a realignment in American politics as Donald Trump moved into the White House with his “Grand New Bargain” coalition. Trump defined the Republicans as the party of safety net, strong borders, technological innovation and ordinary people against cultural elites. In one of the greatest feats of political judo in American history, Trump exploited the ferocity of his opponents against them. A series of unprecedented prosecutions in 2023 helped turn the former president into a symbol of embattled Americans and national alienation, and the excesses of the Biden years (particularly on immigration) helped greenlight Trump II.

Trump's victory in 2016 was an internal shock, but the future president soundly defeated Kamala Harris on Tuesday. While the votes are still being counted, he appears poised to defeat all of the battleground states. Most media organizations called on his behalf in Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He also currently directs in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada. If he wins these states, it would be the Republicans' strongest election result since 1988. Trump is also ahead in the popular vote. If true, Trump would be the first non-incumbent Republican to win the popular vote since 1988.

Kamala Harris' campaign made many missteps. She never developed a targeted political message, rejected economic issues and pursued a low-profile media strategy that allowed Trump to drive the news cycle. But structural factors presented an even greater challenge. Polls have long shown that American voters believed the nation was on the wrong path, and Joe Biden's approval ratings have been underwater for years. The escalating chaos of Biden's presidency — the broken border, instability abroad and crippling inflation — exerted a pull that Harris could not withstand, and her insubstantial campaign hampered her ability to differentiate herself from her unpopular boss.

Harris' Vibes-based strategy was based on building a “Belmont+” coalition of educated suburbanites. But a campaign based on appealing to progressive activists, NPR listeners and professional anti-Trump pundits was too narrowly focused to win across the country, even in the high-profile suburbs. An early canary in the coal mine for Harris' chances was Loudoun County in northern Virginia. Often cited as the wealthiest county in America, Loudoun should have been the epicenter of Belmont+. Harris appears to have won it by about 16 points, but that margin is well below Biden's 25-point victory there in 2020.

There are many signs that this new Republican coalition is more ethnically diverse and working-class. While Harris improved Biden's margins in some areas (such as the Atlanta suburbs), Trump continued to improve on his previous performance in rural and suburban counties. Perhaps more strikingly, it affected Democrats in their home state. While votes are still coming in in the New York area, Trump appears to have significantly improved his 2020 performance in much of New York City's five boroughs. Starr County, Texas, which borders Mexico, had supported Democratic presidential candidates for more than a century, but Trump won it by 16 points. Elsewhere in the Lone Star State, Trump gained supporters in the suburbs of Dallas and Austin.

The exit poll data is still being calibrated and should be viewed with caution. With that in mind, the exit polls could provide insight into an electorate that continues to polarize on education even as it depolarizes on ethnicity. Initial analysis suggests that Trump may have performed slightly worse compared to 2020 among voters who identify as white (particularly those with college degrees), but he improved among voters who did not identify as white. Trump appears to have significantly improved his performance among voters who identify as “Hispanic.” Recent polling data shows that Harris actually did better than Biden among college-educated voters, winning by 13 points instead of Biden's seven. But the tidal wave of Trump support from non-college voters has wiped out those gains.

The image of the down-bot voice is still emerging. Republicans flipped the Senate. As expected, West Virginia Governor Jim Justice easily won outgoing Joe Manchin's seat in West Virginia. In Montana, Tim Sheehy defeated three-term Sen. John Tester, and Trump's strong performance in Ohio helped Bernie Moreno defeat Sherrod Brown, also serving three terms. That gives Republicans 52 votes in the Senate and control of the chamber. The Republicans could gain even more seats. Bob Casey, a third member of the Democratic Senate class of 2006, is about a point behind Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania. The races in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin are just around the corner. The House of Representatives also remains in limbo. Republicans narrowly won the chamber in 2022, although they won the “popular vote” by a significant margin, meaning House control could fall to narrow majorities with a small number of seats.

If the top election results can be seen in part as a rejection of the excesses of the cultural left, this could also be the case with some voting questions. In California, a measure allowing the prosecution of certain property and drug crimes against long-time offenders (Proposition 36) passed overwhelmingly. While some states (e.g., Maryland and Arizona) passed ballot questions easing abortion restrictions, voters in Florida and South Dakota rejected pro-abortion initiatives. Florida and North Dakota also rejected proposals to legalize marijuana, and Massachusetts rejected an attempt to legalize psychedelics.

Realignments are often the story of a failed paradigm of the past. Biden thought he would take office as the next FDR. To appease a leftward-leaning Democratic Party, he detonated border controls and introduced a sweeping agenda of progressive identity politics. He denounced his opponents as a threat to the “soul of the nation” and called for eliminating barriers to narrow partisan majorities (endorsing both the nuclear filibuster option in the Senate and a version of progressive court reform). On Tuesday evening, voters rejected his policies of expanding vortex.

The collapse of the Biden presidency and the defeat of the Harris campaign represent an opportunity and a warning for Republicans. A faction entrusted with power will be punished by voters if it fails to deliver, and elites risk major political losses Dangers if they isolate themselves in the pseudocosm of their own fantasies. To avoid a similar electoral reckoning, the Republican Party must honor its new agreement with the American public.

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