ALDS odds, tips, best bets on Monday

Given the Detroit Tigers' starting rotation, it seemed like Tarik Skubal would have to win both starts to have a chance in the ALDS against Cleveland.

With regard to Game 2 on Monday, this is even more true as the Guardians won Game 1 comfortably 7-0 on Saturday.

Tigers vs Guardians Game 2 Odds

Tigers vs Guardians Game 2 Prediction

Skubal was sensational in his playoff debut against the Astros in the wild card round and more than lived up to the hype of his spectacular regular season.

The AL Triple Crown winner allowed zero earned runs and four hits in six innings in a tough environment against a proven playoff lineup.

Prior to this start, he went all out for the Cy Young with a 1.42 ERA and 2.06 FIP in his last five starts. He had a K-BB% of 28.2 during that time frame.

Results decline significantly for most pitchers when the order is worked through a third time, often leading to hotly contested decisions about how long a starter should stay in the postseason.

However, Skubal's performance third down the order was outstanding, which may be relevant considering Tigers manager AJ Hinch would prefer to keep his ace on the mound deep into Game 2 on Monday.

Skubal worked through the order for the third time and still struck out 31% of batters while allowing a batting average of just .215. This is almost unheard of at the MLB level.

Matthew Boyd, who will face Skubal on Monday, is a quality starter himself, which the Tigers are aware of, as the veteran left-hander spent parts of eight seasons in Detroit.

He is in the best phase of his career and appears to have found something in Cleveland after a career filled with mediocrity.

In mid-August, Boyd made his first start in over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. In 39 2/3 innings over eight starts, he is 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA.

He enters Game 2 with an xFIP of 3.89, an xERA of 3.10 and an xBA of 0.236. Pitching models only have a few models left in his arsenal (Stuff+ 75, Pitching+ of 95).

The Guardians' second-half wRC+ of 106 against left-handed pitchers ranks 12th. They struck out just 18.5% of the time during that span, but their strong plate discipline came at a price, as they ranked 27th in the Hard Hit Rankings.

The Tigers posted a wRC+ of 91 against lefties in the second half and were significantly more effective against righties with a wRC+ of 105.

Tigers vs. Guardians Game 2 Selection

I think Skubal will rise to the challenge with another dominant performance on Monday afternoon.

If Detroit does any damage, the best chance is still early, before the Guardians' dominant high-leverage relievers come into play as they look to put their ace in the lead.

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Skubal has recorded wins in 61.2% of Skubal's starts this season (19 of 31), which would put a -158 betting line for him as a base for a win.

Although I would never try to argue, -158 is actually a fair price for a Skubal win in this difficult situation. And considering the actual price at bet365 is +145, this is just too good to pass up.

Best choice: Tarik Skubal records a win (+145, bet365)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Nicholas Martin breaks down the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but also has a 180 unit lead himself in verified picks on a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.