At 64, Nigeria has lost its way

At 64 years old, Nigeria is a total mess. It is a deformed adult child of 64 years old! It cannot protect itself and relies on others for basic supplies, even when it has abundant resources. A weak union, Nigeria, which gained independence from the British colonial rulers on October 1, 1960, stands on the wrong structural footing. A natural federation of more than 250 different ethnic nationalities with vast cultures, beliefs and ideologies turns political logic on its head and functions like a unitary state. Consequently, it spins in circles, a dismal imitation of an isomorphic state.

For much of its history it has lost its way. Unlike China, whose national holiday is October 1st, it is moving forward. And that's not a harsh judgment. China's GDP is $17.96 trillion (2022), as opposed to Nigeria's $252 billion!

The political class lives in denial, but for most citizens there is little reason to celebrate. The high hopes raised by independence have vanished, made worse by last year's unprecedented cost of living crisis.

The ethnic nationalities live together in mutual distrust, mistrust and disharmony. The evil is hard to hide. The competition of the first days after the colonialists left has turned into hostile rivalry. The values ​​of integrity, scholarship and dignity of work have disappeared and been replaced by depravity and pathological antagonism. Young people flee, called “Japa” in local parlance.

The numbers are grim. Islamic terrorism, rape by Fulani herdsmen, banditry and separatist agitation have killed 63,135 citizens in the eight years ending May 2023. The number has not improved under Bola Tinubu, the fifth president of the Fourth Republic, which began in 1999. The Fragile State Index, created annually by the Fund for Peace, places Nigeria at number 15 in 2023. It is in the same group as Guinea, Zimbabwe and Libya.

Due to mismanagement of its abundant natural resources, Nigeria is currently an empty repository of abandoned infrastructure projects. Around 56,000 unfinished projects dot the landscape. According to the World Bank, Nigeria's infrastructure stock accounts for 30 percent of GDP. This is 40 percent below the bank's recommended 70 percent. The African Development Bank notes that Nigeria needs $100 billion annually for 30 years to build its infrastructure.

Electricity production is dismal, a stark reality of Nigeria's stagnant development. Its continental counterparts South Africa and Egypt each generate 58,000 megawatts; Nigeria is barely capable of generating 5,000 MW. According to the World Bank, 64 years after the flag's independence, 45 percent of citizens do not have access to the electricity grid.

The economy unwisely depends on oil revenues. Oil prices have fluctuated wildly since 2014, leaving Nigeria hanging by a thread. After restructuring in 2014, the economy was then the first with a GDP of US$510 billion and now the fourth in Africa with a GDP of US$252 billion.

After more than six decades of independence, the country with Africa's largest population – 233 million – can no longer feed its people. According to the 2023 Global Hunger Index, Nigeria ranks 109th out of 125 countries for which there is sufficient data to calculate GHI scores. With a score of 28.3, the famine in Nigeria is in the “severe” severity level.

Nigeria is in a deplorable state in terms of education and social services. At 20.1 million, Nigeria's out-of-school population is the second largest in the world after India. Plagued by strikes, poor pay and shoddy infrastructure, universities are ranked poorly worldwide. A new policy aimed at denying university admission to students under 18 is causing mass anger.

As a significant number of medical professionals migrate abroad, the health of citizens is at risk. The rich fly abroad for medical treatment. According to the Nigerian Medical Association, medical tourism costs Nigeria $2 billion annually.

Fifty-eight years after independence, things have gone from bad to worse in Nigeria. This year it gained global scorn after overtaking India, population 87 million, as the global poverty capital. Unfortunately, it's much worse. In 2022, the NBS estimates that 133 million Nigerians were living in multidimensional poverty. The situation worsened in 2023 after Tinubu removed the petrol subsidy that had kept transport prices affordable and floated the currency. The World Bank said the two measures increased poverty rates among Nigerians by 7 million. NBS data puts the poverty rate at 27.2 percent or 17.1 million citizens in 1980 and 69.0 percent or 112.47 million in 2010. Multidimensional poverty is at 63 percent and income poverty is at 40 percent, according to the AfDB.

Its economy is disorganized. This is clearly reflected in the tax rate of 10 percent, one of the lowest in the world. The OECD sets the minimum tax rate for economic development at 16 percent of GDP.

Work is poorly paid. Most states are struggling with the new national minimum wage of N70,000 per month. The federal government, for its part, is borrowing to pay federal civil servants despite the national debt stock exceeding 121 trillion naira in 2024. The federal government serviced its debt at 74 percent of income in the first quarter. There is a huge gap in income equality. Unemployment remains unusually high.

It is unwise that Nigeria is unwilling to change a political structure that has led to discontent, unrest and extreme deprivation. The political leadership is driving the system into ruin and implosion is imminent.

The only positive claim is that democracy is in effect after the military left government in 1999. This is the best there is. Elections, a healthy measure of democracy, are hollow; They end in litigation and the winners are determined by the judiciary, not the voters. This leads to deeper fissures after each election cycle.

That wasn't the case at the beginning. The 1963 Republican Constitution recognized the importance of federalism, which takes into account diverse interests, particularly those of minorities. The three regions – East, West and North – developed at their own pace, ensuring healthy competition and development. These three regions are now divided into 36 states. Most are not economically viable.

The misguided military coup of 1966 destroyed Nigeria's young political soul. Since then, the country has experienced three years of murderous war. Amid renewed violence, separatist agitators from Biafra are once again demanding their own country. The north is marked by religious bloodshed, a sign that Nigeria is a failing state. Others strongly emphasize that it has failed.

Nigeria still has some options left. First, it can continue to pretend to be a unitary state and eventually destroy itself. Second, it can set in motion true federalism – the devolution of power to constituent units, as was the case in the First Republic. Here the allied units are equal to the center and not subservient as is the current case by going to Abuja with begging bowls.

The third option is to negotiate a peaceful separation, as occurred in the 1989 “Velvet (Soft) Revolution” in the defunct Czechoslovakia, to form two countries – the Czech Republic (originally the Czech Republic) and Slovakia.

Without taking this path, the ultimate price is violent disintegration. The stubborn forces in the former Yugoslavia followed this path with disastrous consequences as the country was forcibly divided into over seven countries.

The degenerate political class should rehabilitate itself and avoid this at all costs, but delay is dangerous.