College Football Playoff Predictions: Joel Klatt's projected field, 27 teams in the mix

Joel Klatt

Senior College Football Analyst

November is here, which means we still have a weekend of games until the College Football Playoff committee releases its first weekly rankings on Tuesday. The reveal of the initial rankings always gives us a good picture of how the committee views each team and their respective paths to reaching the CFP.

Of course this year is different. This year is the first season of the 12-team playoffs. Typically this time of year in the four-team format, only about 12 teams have a chance of reaching the CFP. I believe there are 27 programs this year that still have a way to go. If we still had the four-team field, I think there would only be 14 teams that still had a legitimate chance of making it. I think this is great for the sport.

Before I go over the 27 teams that still have a legitimate shot at the CFP, let's take a look at my projected 12-team field.

Bye in the first round

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Clemson
4. BYU

I watch Oregon beat Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, Georgia beat Texas in the SEC championship game, Clemson beat Miami (Florida) in the ACC championship game and BYU beat Kansas State for the Big 12 title. According to this prediction, Oregon would be undefeated and therefore have an advantage over Georgia. I still believe in Clemson and am really starting to believe in BYU, which reminds me of the TCU team that made it to the national championship game in 2022.

First round matches

No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Miami (Florida)
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Alabama
No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Tennessee

First team elimination: Indiana

If Ohio State reaches the Big Ten Championship Game, that means it will likely defeat Penn State or Indiana. That would be enough to give the Buckeyes the No. 5 seed, especially if they lose another close game against Oregon.

So Texas would slip to No. 6 because these quality wins were missing. Texas could beat Texas A&M in College Station, but I actually saw Texas A&M lose to South Carolina this weekend. So an away win against the Aggies would take some of the shine off the Longhorns in this scenario.

I think Penn State and Notre Dame will probably be 11-1. If the Nittany Lions lose and win this weekend, I think they would have done enough to slide to No. 7. So Notre Dame would get the No. 8 seed and take a step back due to the loss to Northern Illinois.

I believe Tennessee and Alabama will finish the year 10-2. If Alabama gets to 10-2, that means it would have wins over Georgia and LSU. But Tennessee would rank ahead of Alabama in this scenario because Tennessee beat Alabama.

That leaves another general offer, which I think would come down to Miami and Indiana in this scenario. The Hurricanes would likely be 12-1 while the Hoosiers would probably be 11-1. Both strengths of the schedules are rightly under scrutiny. Miami would come out on top because it has the extra win, and I think having a Heisman Trophy contender in quarterback Cam Ward could help here. I also want to be fair and not penalize a team that lost their conference championship game.

Texas and Ohio State in Joel Klatt's Nov. 12 CFP bracket

Now let's take a look at which 27 teams are still alive in the playoff hunt, conference by conference.

SEK (7)

Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M

Any of these three teams could likely lose another game in the regular season and still make it to the CFP based on what each team has already accomplished this season. Texas A&M has a caveat, however. It must win its next three games (at South Carolina against New Mexico State at Auburn) before facing Texas in the regular-season finale. Even though Notre Dame was a non-conference loss, the Fighting Irish still have the ball, and the Aggies should avoid standing next to them on the bubble. If both Texas A&M and Notre Dame are 10-2 at the end of the season, Notre Dame has the outright win in the bag. So Texas A&M has to win these three games. If so, it could reach the SEC Championship game regardless of the outcome of the game against Texas.

Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed (10) replaced Conner Weigman in the second half of their win over LSU and scored three touchdowns in the win. (Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU

I think it will be difficult for a team with three losses to make it to the CFP. Therefore, each of these three teams must win to have any chance of making it. That means the Alabama-LSU game on November 6th is unofficially the first playoff game of the year. It also means Ole Miss has Beat Georgia.

Sorry, Missouri. Even if you went 10-2, you probably wouldn't have any ranked wins, and your only games against ranked teams were both disastrous losses.

Big Ten (5)

Oregon

At 8-0, the Ducks probably have the cleanest path to the CFP of any team in the country. I don't think they'll be eliminated from any of the Big Ten Championship berths, let alone the 12-team playoffs.

Penn State

The Nittany Lions should make it if they go 11-1. We value them very much and I believe the committee will too. But if they lose two games in November, they could be one of the 10-2 teams that I think miss the postseason because they would be missing a big win, assuming they lose to Ohio State in that scenario. Just win this weekend and all is well, Penn State.

Ohio State vs. Penn State: Which coach will get this win?

Indiana

The Hoosiers are the team I'm most interested in hearing the committee's opinion on. Indiana should be above fellow undefeated team Miami as they were dominant in every game. But if the committee's opinion of Indiana matches the AP poll, the Hoosiers will need to go at least 11-1 to make the field.

Ohio State

If the Buckeyes are going to take care of business in the games they should win (against Purdue, at Northwestern, against Michigan), I think they just need to win at least one of the games against Penn State and Indiana. Ohio State's brand is big enough that we'd say they're absolutely 10-2 in the CFP. Of course, Ohio State would rather win all of these games and play for the Big Ten title.

Ohio State and Penn State are still fighting for a spot in the College Football Playoff

Michigan

This is the only team I can see going 9-3 in the CFP. Before you roll your eyes, you want the committee to think about how you do at the end of the year. We saw Michigan struggle offensively to open the year, but if it wins, it would pick up wins over Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State. I don't expect that to happen, but considering how good Michigan's defense can be when healthy, the door is at least open.

Big 12 (4)

BYU and Iowa State

The path for the Cougars and Cyclones is pretty obvious: Keep winning, and you'll probably get in. At first I wasn't sure if the Big 12 would get two CFP bids. But if both teams make it to the conference title game and are 12-0, the loser of that game would be 12-1. They would pick up two wins against teams in the bubble. But I think that's the only way we're going to get two teams out of the Big 12.

Kansas State and Colorado

The Wildcats and Buffaloes probably won't make it to the CFP without winning the conference title game. Kansas State has a safer path between the two teams with one game remaining against Iowa State. Colorado needs Kansas State to lose to Iowa State and BYU needs to stumble at some point and win a tiebreaker to reach the Big 12 championship game.

Joel Klatt reveals why Colorado poses a serious threat to Big 12 supremacy

ACC (4)

Miami (Florida) and Clemson

Miami QB Cam Ward is among the favorites to win the Heisman as he is second nationally in passing yards and touchdowns. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Getty Images)

Pitt

The path for Pitt is a little more difficult. Pitt must beat SMU on Saturday and Clemson on November 16th. The Panthers have three wins by a margin of four points or less. Quarterback Eli Holstein is injured. So I don't think it will happen for the Panthers, but there is a way.

SMU

This is another team that needs to top the standings to get in, especially since SMU's only loss was against BYU.

Independent (1)

Notre Dame

Notre Dame will make some noise in the playoffs based on its win over Texas A&M. I think the Fighting Irish could still be in the mix even if they lose another game this season because of this.

Group of 5 (6)

Boise State

If Boise State wins the Mountain West, I think it will be the Group of 5 representative. It's that simple.

Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty leads the nation in rushing yards and is among the favorites to win the Heisman. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)

army

Army is probably the next team after Boise State considering they played as an undefeated team. If it finishes on top and Boise State falls, Army will likely get the Group of 5 spot.

UNLV

If there is some chaos in the AAC and UNLV beats Boise State in the Mountain West championship game, the Rebels are likely on track to secure a spot in the Group of 5. UNLV has received some love from the AP Top 25 poll this season.

marine, Tulane, Memphis

For any of those three to make it, you need the opposite of the UNLV scenario. If either Navy, Tulane or Memphis come out on top and win the AAC and Boise State doesn't win the Mountain West, there's a path for one of those teams.

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