Could third-party voters spoil the 2024 election?

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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump's race for the White House has entered the final hours of their campaign, and most pollsters agree that the outcome is still far too close to predict.

Lead election analyst Nate Silver has predicted that this year's vote will be “a back-and-forth” and could go one way or the other, giving the Republican a 51.5 percent chance of winning to Harris' 48.1 percent.

The last area code is now New York Times/A Siena College poll shows the vice president narrowly leading in key swing states Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia, with her rival leading in Arizona, while Pennsylvania and Michigan remain deadlocked.

Given the small margins, the outcome will likely come down to a handful of undecided or persuaded voters in these seven swing states – meaning even small changes in the voting intentions of individual blocs could become hugely significant.

What influence could third-party candidates have on the outcome of the race?

Jill Stein of the Green Party, Professor Cornel West and the independent and now Trump ally Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have no realistic chance of claiming the White House.

But their participation in the election could prove decisive.

Both Stein and West could benefit from Democratic voters' dissatisfaction in Michigan, such as growing anger over the Biden administration's handling of recent events in the Middle East, particularly the Israeli military's actions in Gaza.

President Joe Biden was targeted by the “Uncommitted” movement during the late February primary when more than 100,000 people in the state, which has a sizeable Arab-American population, used their ballots to signal their dissatisfaction with the president and him to warn not to take their support for granted.

Since Harris succeeded Biden, hecklers at her rallies have increasingly asked her to address the conflict in Gaza. She has tried to distinguish between herself and the president, but if voters aren't convinced, Stein and West (and maybe even Trump) will win.

Stein, in particular, has been openly critical of Israel's behavior, received a warm reception when she attended the annual meeting of the American Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee earlier this year, and received support from the American Arab and Muslim PAC and the Abandon Harris group.

Regarding the likely role of third-party candidates, Trump said at a rally in Philadelphia in June before Biden's decision to step down: “Cornel West – he's one of my favorite candidates, Cornel West.” And I like – I like her too. Jill Stone. I like her very much. Do you know why? She takes 100 percent from (Biden). He takes 100 percent. Kennedy is probably 50/50, but he’s a fake.”

While Stein and West could pose a threat to Harris, RFK Jr. threatens to do the same to Trump.

RFK Jr. had run as an independent candidate but paused his campaign and endorsed the former president, reportedly in exchange for a role in the possible future Trump administration.

Trump has duly spent the final weeks of the election cycle talking about giving RFK Jr. free rein to “do whatever he wants” and going on a “rant” about women's health, diet and medications, but The eccentric heir to the Kennedy dynasty could still cause him a problem at the voting booths.

Despite his best efforts to withdraw, RFK Jr is still on the ballot in Michigan and Wisconsin.

The U.S. Supreme Court late last month ruled against overturning his emergency appeal so as not to inadvertently harm Trump by collecting unwanted votes.

The decision forced Kennedy into the unusual position of turning to X to beg his fans not to vote for him on November 5th.

Bernard Tamas, a political science professor at Valdosta State University, said The Guardian that this random challenge could be called the “Nikki Haley effect.”

“Nikki Haley dropped out of the primary and still won a significant percentage of the Republican vote,” Professor Tamas explained.

“If you take the many Republicans who are dissatisfied with Trump as a candidate and don't want to vote for Harris, they could end up voting for RFK knowing full well he's not even on the ballot. Basically just in protest.”