Donald Trump is making final stops in New Mexico and Virginia

As Election Day approaches, former President Donald Trump is campaigning in New Mexico and Virginia – states that have not favored Republican presidential candidates in decades.

His visit to Albuquerque on Thursday represents a strategic detour from the more contested battlegrounds where he hopes to build support ahead of the election.

Trump's campaign is exuding optimism based on early voting data, anticipating that he can effectively compete against Democrat Kamala Harris in those states – especially New Mexico – if he wins in swing states like Nevada and Arizona.

However, neither New Mexico nor Virginia has been won by a Republican candidate since George W. Bush's victory in 2004.

Is New Mexico a swing state?

In recent months, much of the focus has been on traditional battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where there have been numerous candidate visits and extensive advertising.

However, Trump has a committed support base in states that typically lean Democratic.

Recent stops have included not only Albuquerque, but also Madison Square Garden in New York and a rally in Coachella, California – both states with strong Democratic leanings.

In Albuquerque, Trump reiterated his belief that he could win New Mexico if the election is fair, repeating past claims of voter fraud. “If we could bring God down from heaven, he could be the vote counter and we could win,” he said, calling his presence in New Mexico positive for his image among Hispanic voters.

However, experts believe that this strategy is associated with risks. After losing the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton was criticized for focusing on Arizona toward the end of the campaign instead of focusing on key states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – regions that ultimately decided the outcome.

How are Trump's immigration policies being received in New Mexico?

While Arizona is considered a battleground today, it was not considered competitive in 2016, when it narrowly voted for Trump.

Bob Shrum, a veteran Democratic strategist, said: “I don’t think there’s any strategy. I think he insisted. It makes no sense.”

Trump's visit to New Mexico brings his controversial immigration policies to the forefront, in a state with a high concentration of Latino voters – about 44 percent of the voting-age population.

Many residents have deep historical ties to the region, although New Mexico has a lower proportion of foreign-born residents compared to the national average.

The state is currently grappling with a spike in migrant deaths along the U.S.-Mexico border, making Trump's messaging even more complex.

The visit has implications for a competitive congressional district in New Mexico that is currently held by a Democrat.

Immigration remains a critical issue in this race as Republican candidates seek to maintain their slim majority in the House of Representatives.

Additionally, Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich is seeking a third term against Republican challenger Nella Domenici, the daughter of the late Sen. Pete Domenici, who was the last New Mexico Republican elected to the Senate.

Is Virginia a battleground state again?

Virginia, once a key battleground state, has shifted significantly toward Democrats over the past decade, particularly in the populous northern suburbs.

Trump lost Virginia to both Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. This year, Democratic candidates and their allies have spent more money on advertising in the state than Republicans, further complicating Trump's efforts.

While calling a rally in the Richmond area, Trump said, “We have a real chance” as he prepares for his upcoming visit to Salem, Virginia. He is expected to address recent Supreme Court rulings related to voter registration purges aimed at preventing non-citizens from voting.

As Trump embarks on this unconventional campaign, the results in New Mexico and Virginia remain uncertain, but his detours highlight the complex electoral landscape as both candidates make their final pitches to voters before the election.

This article contains additional reporting from The Associated Press