First Alert Weather In-Depth: A fuzzy forecast for the upcoming winter season

ROCHESTER, NY – It's that time of year when we think about what kind of winter season is in store for Western New York. In the short term, snow is already starting to fly west through the Rocky Mountains, Alaska and Canada's Yukon.

It's important to note that none of this snow is making its way toward Rochester, at least for now. Looking back at our seasonal snowfall history, the Rochester Airport has a record five consecutive winter seasons of below average snowfall. In fact, last season we were only able to measure half of the usual snow.

What tool can we use to predict the upcoming winter? It's still too early in the season to give a good look at the forecast, but perhaps we could use some weather folklore. The woolly bear caterpillar comes to mind. Legend has it that the more black the stripes are, the harsher or harsher you can expect the coming winter season. However, the stronger brown color increases the chance of a mild winter. I doubt there's any real scientific basis for this, but it's fun to watch the cute little critters. A few small non-scientific studies were conducted on the subject years ago, but scientists have since discounted any real predictive ability. It seems to make more sense that the banding is a reflection of the past winter rather than looking ahead to the future winter season.

As we approach winter, expect more concrete meteorological forecasts from News 10NBC First Alert meteorologists, with a modest forecast for December, January and February.