Fox News voter analysis: Is this a swing election? Top issues and mood of the nation according to voters

As the country awaits election results, voters are weighing in on the issues and whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will bring about the kind of change they seek. Because it seems that change is exactly what they want.

Economic concerns and worries about the future are important considerations as voters make their choices in this year's election.

Preliminary data from Fox News Voter Analysis, a survey of more than 110,000 voters across the country, provides the first glimpse into voters' mood as they cast their ballots.

More voters went to the polls this year believing the country was on the wrong path (70%) than in 2020 (60%). And voters across the country want something different: Most want a change in the way the country is run, and a quarter (26%) want complete upheaval.

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Voter frustration with the Biden administration was clear, with more than five in 10 voters disapproving of the job he is doing.

In contrast, voters had an overall positive memory of Donald Trump's time in office, with more than half approving of his job as president. Four years ago, 47% approved of the job Trump was doing.

This desire for change comes with divided views about the role of government. Just over half think the government should do more to solve the country's problems, a slight decrease from 2020 (57%). Almost as many (45%) believe the government does too many things better and leaves them to the private sector.

Voters say the economy is by far the country's biggest problem, followed by immigration and abortion.

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Four in ten voters say inflation was the most important factor in their vote.

Voters rate the economy bleakly: two-thirds rate it as mediocre (40%) or downright bad (23%). Four years ago, in the midst of the coronavirus-induced recession, only 14% said the economy was bad.

In a sign of the economic impact of inflation, about three times as many voters feel they are falling behind financially than feel they are getting ahead. Four years ago, about the same number said they would move forward, but in 2020 only 18% of those said they would fall behind.

For more voters, being able to afford food (67%) was the top household concern, ahead of health care (54%), housing (51%) and gasoline (48%).

Overall, voters had slightly more positive views of Harris as a person (48% positive, 49% negative) than of Trump (46% positive, 52% negative). The same is true at the vice presidential level: Tim Walz's views (43% positive, 41% negative) were slightly better than JD Vance's views (42% positive, 46% negative). Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ended his third presidential run in August and supported Trump, was less popular than either candidate (41% favorable, 43% unfavorable).

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The spotlight is not kind to Biden, whose strongly negative popularity rating (40% favorable, 57% unfavorable) has declined significantly compared to four years ago (50% favorable, 48% unfavorable).

FNVA Methodology 2024 Statement:

Fox News Voter Analysis, conducted in collaboration with the Associated Press, provides a comprehensive look at voting behavior, opinions and preferences in America's election. It is based on polls of the U.S. electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago with voting results from The Associated Press. For the 2024 general election, FNVA results are based on a probability sample of registered voters from state voter files, samples of self-identified registered voters from a probability-based national panel, and samples of self-identified registered voters from eligible voters. in online panels. The FNVA survey of the American electorate was conducted in all 50 states from October 28 to November 5, ending with the end of voting on Election Day.

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