Gianforte and Zinke are trying to continue Republican dominance in Montana elections

HELENA, Mont. — Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte is heavily favored for re-election over a political newcomer, while U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke faces a bigger challenge from an experienced campaigner as Republican incumbents seek to assert their party's political dominance in the Big Sky State to continue.

Gianforte clashed with the Montana Supreme Court over laws on abortion access and gender-affirming medical care for transgender youth, but his first term was otherwise free of controversy as he put behind him a criminal case that put a damper on his political career thwarted the plan. In 2017, he punched a reporter on the eve of a special election for a U.S. House seat and was charged with a misdemeanor. He then won a seat and was elected governor in 2020.

Zinke, meanwhile, has been recovering from his resignation as Interior secretary under former President Donald Trump in 2018 amid numerous ethics investigations. He was elected to the House twice before joining Trump's Cabinet and returned in 2022 after winning in a newly created congressional district.

Gianforte is a heavy favorite against his Democratic opponent, former firearms executive Ryan Busse. Zinke is in a tougher rematch against Democrat Monica Tranel, an environmental lawyer he narrowly defeated two years ago.

Challengers have sought to portray the incumbents as wealthy and out of touch with regular Montana residents.

Gianforte has touted his administration's reduction in income taxes and using some of the $2.6 billion pandemic-related budget surplus to cut corporate taxes, provide income and property tax refunds, pay down the national debt and boost emergency funds fill.

He also noted his $300 million investment in behavioral health, his efforts to cut government red tape and the creation of a housing task force to recommend legislation to increase the availability of affordable housing in Montana increase. One recommendation lawmakers could consider in 2025 is not taxing a certain portion of a home's value.

“I wake up every day looking for ways to help Montanans prosper, and we are succeeding,” Gianforte said during a recent debate with Busse. “There is still more to do.”

Gianforte also had a Republican majority in the Legislature, which passed bills that restricted access to abortion, allowed the governor to directly appoint judges when midterm vacancies became available, and blocked gender-affirming medical care for transgender minors. Only the judge appointment law was confirmed by the courts.

Busse, a Kalispell native, supports responsible gun ownership, abortion rights, reduced property taxes and wants the rich to pay their fair share of taxes.

He says Gianforte spent millions of dollars of his personal wealth in 2020 to buy the governor's office and watched as Montana became unaffordable for the average citizen, particularly due to what Gianforte believes are increases in housing costs and increased property taxes after not having mitigated.

“Now you may not be hurting — you have four mansions, you’re flying around in a private jet,” Busse told Gianforte during the Oct. 16 debate, “but the rest of us are hurting.”

Gianforte and his wife Susan founded the customer service software company RightNow Technologies, which was sold to Oracle in early 2012 for about $1.5 billion. Busse's 2014-2023 tax returns show he and his wife earned about $260,000 annually over the past decade.

Gianforte won 54% of the vote in the 2020 race.

In the race to represent western Montana in the U.S. House of Representatives, Zinke said his top issues are reducing inflation and strengthening the economy, border security and access to public lands.

Tranel, who lost to Zinke by four percentage points in the 2022 House race, said she wants to advocate for affordable housing, protect people's privacy and freedom – including the right to abortion – and make communities safe, stable and secure.

If Tranel wins, she would be the second woman elected to Congress from Montana. Jeannette Rankin of Missoula was the first woman in the United States elected to national office when she was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from Montana in 1916 for a single term. Rankin was re-elected to the House of Representatives in 1940.

In Zinke's financial disclosures as a candidate for the House of Representatives, he and his wife report having properties valued at between $9 million and $39 million. Tranel's disclosure shows that she and her husband have retirement savings and other investments valued at between $4.25 million and nearly $12 million. The disclosures enable reporting within a wide range of values.

A Libertarian candidate received 3.8% of the vote in 2022. There is a libertarian candidate again this year.

The Cook Political Report rated the race between Zinke and Tranel as “somewhat Republican” in early October, indicating less confidence than the previous rating of “likely Republican.”