Gov. Phil Scott easily wins re-election to a fifth term at the helm of Vermont

Updated at 9:08 p.m

Vermonters want two more years of Governor Phil Scott.

The Associated Press called the four-term Republican's victory just after 7:30 p.m. Tuesday night, a half-hour after polls closed in Vermont. Scott, of Berlin, was challenged by Democratic candidate Esther Charlestin, a political newcomer and education consultant who lives in South Burlington.

Scott and dozens of his closest supporters and associates gathered in Montpelier on Tuesday evening at an Associated General Contractors of Vermont warehouse decorated for the occasion with various Scott campaign and motorcycle paraphernalia. A guitarist filled the room with country and classic rock songs.

About 20 minutes after the AP called the race for Scott, his campaign manager Jason Maulucci broke the “good news” of the governor's victory to the room, which erupted in applause.

Scott's easy victory came despite the fact that former President Donald Trump — who remains deeply unpopular in Vermont — led the Republican team.

If Tuesday was any indication, Vermonters were eager to split their tickets. Earlier in the evening, the AP also declared Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris the winner in the Green Mountain state – the vice president's first victory of the evening.

By 8:45 p.m., with two-fifths of towns reporting, Scott was on track to receive about 74% of the vote, according to unofficial results from the Vermont Secretary of State. Charleston had received around 19% of the vote.

At the same time, Harris led Trump by about 60 percent to 34 percent in Vermont, according to the State Department's unofficial results.

Concerns about the cost of living motivated many voters to choose Scott, they told VTDigger early Tuesday.

“The taxes are becoming outrageous,” said Rachel McCuin, 82, a lifelong Warren resident and retired federal Department of Agriculture employee. “I've lived here my whole life, but gosh, you know, I'm not sure I can stay.”

McCuin said she was voting “because I want to keep the governor we elected” and hoped Scott would help rein in education spending and property taxes.

For Joe Danis, 30, of South Hero, property taxes were also a key concern. “I don’t even live on the water and my property taxes went up 24% this year,” he said. Of Scott, Danis said, “I think he listened to the people very well and did what he said he would do to keep taxes down.”

Even those who voted for Charlestin described it more as a vote against Scott.

“I don't think we're going to get Scott out of office, and he's basically good, kind of in the middle,” Karen Chickering, a 69-year-old retired administrative assistant, said after Tuesday morning's vote in Burlington. “But he needs to be taught that he is not the final authority. He overruled a lot of things that I don’t think he should have done, and that’s why I’m voting against him this time.”

Scott has often been the most popular governor in the country in polls, and Democratic officials have largely dismissed Scott as unbeatable in recent years. Former Democratic Gov. Howard Dean — the only other governor in recent history to win as many terms as Scott — publicly mused about a political comeback to challenge Scott this year.

But even Dean backpedaled, telling reporters in May that he would have to resort to a “campaign of scorched earth and negative attacks” to unseat Scott. The entire (hypothetical) affair, he predicted, “would have easily been a $2 million race on both sides.”

“In any race against an incumbent – popular or not – your first job is to convince people that the incumbent doesn't deserve to be re-elected, and that story hasn't been told,” said Jim Dandeneau, executive director of the Vermont Democratic Party at the time.

Ultimately, only two Democratic candidates rose to the challenge: Charlestin and her primary opponent, Peter Duval, a former member of the Underhill Selectboard who previously ran statewide as a Republican. Scott also faced two independent challengers in that election – Kevin Hoyt of Bennington and Eli “Poa” Mutino of Barre – and a Peace and Justice Party opponent, June Goodband of Springfield. None appeared to be on track to receive more than 3% of the vote.

When Charlestin won the Democratic primary in August, she became Vermont's first woman of color to represent a major party in the gubernatorial election.

At the time, she told VTDigger that she planned to campaign “hard” for Vermonters' votes: “That means raising a lot more money.” That means knocking on doors. That means getting support.”

Charleston's gubernatorial campaign didn't turn out quite as she expected. According to her final campaign finance report, which she filed with the Secretary of State's office on November 1, she raised $56,692 over the course of her campaign.

Scott's campaign fundraising income was $343,632 as of November 1. That's more than six times what Charlestin raised.

During the campaign, Scott rarely criticized Charlestin directly. Instead, he focused on legislative Democrats as his political enemies.

In 2022, Democrats secured a two-thirds majority in both the Vermont House and Senate — enough seats to theoretically override Scott's frequent vetoes as governor. Over the next two years, Democrats advanced legislative priorities that they knew Scott opposed, such as a bill to establish a clean heat standard. While Scott diligently exercised his veto power, lawmakers often responded with decisive override votes.

On the debate stage and in interviews with VTDigger, Scott acknowledged that he doesn't think Vermont is better off now than it was two years ago. But the blame for this, he argued, lay not with him, but with the Democrats in Montpelier.