Here we find out the results of the Trump-Harris election in the 7 battleground states

Topline

In the seven swing states expected to decide the election on Tuesday, the timing of results varies depending on state laws and the volume of mail-in votes. The earliest indication of who might win is likely to come at the end of Election Day, when results are reported in Georgia and North Carolina, but final numbers could take days or weeks.

Important facts

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When can we expect results in the seven swing states?

North Carolina: It will likely be one of the first states to do so, with about 90% of ballots expected to be counted by midnight on Election Day, Jason Roberts, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina, told Fox Digital. Polls close relatively early at 7:30 p.m. ET, and officials process mail-in ballots once a week from October 1 through Election Day. You may begin counting mail-in ballots between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. on Election Day, but in-person early votes cannot be counted until after the polls close.

Georgia: Officials were allowed to begin processing mail-in ballots on the third Monday before Election Day, Oct. 21, and begin counting them at 7 a.m. on Election Day. Polls close at 7:00 p.m. ET. A new law passed this year requires counties to report the results of early and absentee voting by 8 p.m. on Election Day and the number of uncounted ballots by 10 p.m

Wisconsin: The state can begin processing mail-in ballots at 7 a.m. on Election Day, with polls closing at 9 p.m. ET. Election officials expect unofficial results late on Election Day or early Nov. 6, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported.

Michigan: Unofficial results are expected the day after the election, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson told reporters this week, the Lansing State Journal reported. Recent changes to election laws allow officials to start processing ballots earlier than before, which could speed up results: Cities and towns with at least 5,000 residents can start processing mail-in ballots eight days before the election, between 7 a.m begin and 8 p.m., while the entire state can begin processing ballots on the Monday morning before the election. In most states, polls close at 8:00 p.m. ET, but four counties in the Upper Peninsula are on the central time zone and voting continues until 9:00 p.m. ET.

Pennsylvania: Counting ballots may take longer in the state than in other states because election officials are prohibited from processing mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. Polls close at 8:00 p.m. ET. It could take several days for the results to be tabulated, as was the case in the 2020 election. Wait times could be shorter because fewer voters are expected to vote by mail than during the Covid-19 pandemic and some counties have invested in new equipment to open and process ballots more quickly, Secretary of State Al Schmidt said in September WITF Radio.

Nevada: The state will not release results until the last voter casts a ballot when polls close at 10 p.m. ET. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could produce quicker results than in 2020, but a state law allowing mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could change extend the process. The majority of voters in Nevada cast their ballots by mail.

Arizona: The state is among the slowest in counting ballots, and officials estimate it could take 10 to 13 days to complete the count, according to the Washington Post. Poll workers will count mail-in ballots as they are received, but will not begin processing mail-in ballots delivered on Election Day until after the polls close at 9 p.m. ET. An unusually long, two-page ballot with 13 statewide ballot questions could also delay results.

Which states are likely to be the first to report results?

North Carolina and Georgia are expected to be the first swing states to release results that could indicate which candidate is likely to win. Trump has a slight lead in both states, although most polls are within the margin of error and show a virtual tie.

What are the recount rules?

In Arizona and Pennsylvania, state law requires a recount if the candidates' votes differ by within 0.5%. In Pennsylvania, voters can also request a recount in specific precincts where they suspect fraud or error, or in all precincts if there is no allegation of irregularity. Candidates can request a recount in Georgia if there is a difference of 0.5% or less between their vote shares, and the Secretary of State's office can order a recount if errors or irregularities are suspected. Michigan is giving candidates more leeway in requesting a recount under new laws signed in August that allow them to do so if they have a “good faith belief that the candidate, if any, in obtaining or returning votes.” there is an error, there is not.” would have a reasonable chance of winning.” The losing candidate in Nevada can also request a recount within three days of the vote being certified, while North Carolina law allows him to request a recount if there is a difference of 1% or less between the vote totals consists. In Wisconsin, candidates can request a recount if they lose by one percent or less and suspect a “deficiency, irregularity or illegality.”

tangent

In a phenomenon known as a “red mirage,” early vote counts on Election Day are likely to favor Trump as in-person ballots are counted, as Democrats tend to favor mail-in voting and the counting of mail-in ballots is often delayed, leading to a leading result leads to a so-called “blue shift”. At the same time, smaller, rural, Republican-leaning counties are also more likely to report vote totals ahead of larger, urban counties.

Important background

The election for President Joe Biden was called on November 7, 2020, four days after Election Day, with Biden winning Pennsylvania as the state put him above the 270-vote threshold required for victory. In the 2020 election, vote counting generally took longer in states because many voters cast mail-in ballots amid the Covid-19 pandemic. And while early voting numbers have broken records in several states, the share of mail-in votes is expected to decline this year. The 2016 election was called for Trump much more quickly, at 2:29 a.m. the night after the election, after he had won the 10 electors in Wisconsin.

Further reading

Trump and Harris could be counted again in these swing states (Forbes)

Swing-state polls for the 2024 election: Harris and Trump are virtually tied in seven battlegrounds — and Pennsylvania is a toss-up (updated) (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris Polls 2024: Near Tie in Latest HarrisX/Forbes Poll – Just Days Before the Election (Forbes)

Can Trump and Harris catch up? It's Possible – Here's What Would Happen (Forbes)

These Demographics Could Decide the Trump-Harris Race in the 7 Battleground States (Forbes)