Hurricane Rafael maps show impact on US states

Maps from the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) show the projected impact of Hurricane Rafael on the United States as the storm rages in the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Rafael hit Cuba on Wednesday evening as a Category 3 hurricane. Its wind speeds have since dropped to 100 miles per hour, making it a Category 2 hurricane as it begins a long journey across the Gulf. The latest forecasts are for Rafael to move west and maintain hurricane strength through Saturday morning before likely weakening to a tropical storm.

The forecast is a shift from earlier in the week, when forecasters expected Rafael to target Louisiana. The storm's track then shifted toward Texas and has since moved further south, making it unlikely that the storm will make direct landfall in the United States given current forecasts.

Tropical storm warnings for the Florida Keys

However, the indirect effects have already begun. Tropical storms with the risk of coastal flooding and heavy rain were expected in the Florida Keys on Wednesday night. The warnings were discontinued Thursday morning, the NWS Key West office said, although occasional squalls were still expected throughout the day Thursday.

A hurricane warning remains in effect in waters off the coast of Florida, and a small boat advisory warns boaters not to venture into the waters around the Florida Keys.

US beaches expect dangerous currents

Alabama and the Florida panhandle expect dangerous ocean conditions and rip currents caused by the storm, said NWS meteorologist David Reese Newsweek. A Coastal Hazard Notice is in effect for coastal beaches near Mobile, Alabama and Tallahassee, Florida and will remain in effect through the weekend. Currents and dangerous waves could cause beaches to close over the weekend, and Reese advised beachgoers to watch beach flags for possible closures.

“The waves generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days,” the NHC warned. “These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”

Wind-related impacts in the USA

There is also a slight risk of tropical storm-force winds in some coastal areas, the NHC warned. A map from the NHC showed a low chance that coastal Louisiana and part of Texas could experience tropical storm-force winds, which occur when wind speeds exceed 39 miles per hour.

“Rafael is expected to move slowly across the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week,” the NHC said. “Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.”

It's unclear whether rain associated with the storm will reach the U.S., beyond what has already fallen in the Florida Keys. The NHC's latest precipitation maps warn of additional rain over Cuba on Thursday and the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend.