Is Eli Crane’s seat “in play”? Election observers optimize their forecasts

As Election Day approaches, Democrats and some election observers are predicting that one of Arizona's congressional races could be closer than expected.

With early voting just weeks away from the Nov. 5 election and early voting already underway, several election analysis firms began predicting that Democrats would gain ground in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. Eli Crane, R-Ariz., is gaining ground facing a challenge from former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.

The district has long been considered a focal point for Republicans. Then, in quick succession, the nonpartisan handicappers “Cook Political Report,” “Inside Elections” and “Sabato's Crystal Ball” moved the district from its safest category to the “likely” Republican category.

That's made the race a little more exciting in recent weeks, although analysts are careful not to overstate their valuations.

“I think Eli Crane still has an excellent chance to win,” Kyle Kondik said with Sabato’s crystal ball. “It’s just that there’s more activity and interest there than in the average safe Republican or Democratic seat.”

Democrats point to the rating change and a recent poll as evidence that the seat is up for grabs.

Despite the growing enthusiasm, a Democratic victory would be a long way off.

“Crane is still the big favorite here. “It’s not a neck-and-neck race,” Erin Covey said in the Cook Political Report. “But I think this was a race worth watching.”

Signs that a Nez win is unlikely

If the National Democrats believe the seat is flippable, that is not reflected in their party's campaign finances. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is focused on securing a Democratic majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, has not poured resources into the race.

By comparison, the DCCC has spent millions in Arizona's hotly contested 1st and 6th congressional districts.

Additionally, the district's basic structure heavily favors the GOP. According to the Arizona Secretary of State, about 39% of active voters in the district are Republicans, 30% are Democrats and 31% are not affiliated with a political party. This makes it more republican than a major state power and a safe territory for the Republicans.

Jacob Rubashkin of the analysis group Inside Elections said his calculations show that no Democrat has won the district in a statewide race since at least 2016. Most of the time, the Republican margin of victory was in the high or low single digits.

For example, Rubashkin said that former President Donald Trump won by 10 points over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016.

“Politically, it has a long track record of electing Republicans at all levels of the ballot,” he said.

That's one reason why Crane, then a political newcomer, was able to oust incumbent U.S. Rep. Tom O'Halleran in 2022, an establishment Democrat who had held on to the seat for years. Both parties spent millions of dollars on the race in a redistricted district, but O'Halleran lost by eight points.

The idea that Nez could surpass O'Halleran without the financial support of national Democrats or the advantage of incumbency tests some of the most reliable rules of politics.

Crane himself said he was not worried about the rating change.

“I'm not too worried about it. “We have a really good team,” Crane said in an interview at a Trump campaign event in October.

He declined to share his team's internal polls, but said, “They're much better than some of the things we've seen on the internet.”

Democrats point to other hopeful signs

Still, Democrats pointed out that the ratings were a sign that the seat was in play.

There are some promising signs for Nez. For one thing, he was a strong fundraiser. He's raised about $4 million in total: Not as much as Crane's $7 million, but more than you'd expect in a Republican stronghold.

That allowed Nez to spend more money on television advertising than Crane, Covey said, while Crane didn't start buying television advertising until much later. Covey said Nez may have caught Crane “off guard.”

Nez supporters promoted a recent survey conducted by Noble Predictive Insights in early October. The poll of 414 likely voters showed the race is undecided and both candidates received 42% support. Another 15% of voters are undecided.

There are reasons to treat the survey with caution: It contradicts the county's historical voting patterns and included responses collected through online surveys, which some consider less reliable than telephone-administered questionnaires. But the poll had an outsized impact because it was one of the few publicly available indicators of where the race is headed.

For Kondik, the results showed that Crane has “growth potential.”

“To the extent that there are undecideds, you would expect them to lean more toward Republicans,” he said.

Does Nez have a path to victory?

James Gravitt, Nez's campaign manager, said Democrats' path to victory in the district is two-pronged: challenging Native American voters and convincing new rural voters to choose Nez over Crane.

Nez's support among local voters is not universal. He lost re-election as president of the Navajo Nation in 2022 and continues to face opposition from some Republican-allied tribal leaders. But if elected, he would be the first Native American to represent Arizona in Congress.

Without revealing specific data, Gravitt said Nez's campaign has excited local voters. He said their campaign is aiming for historic voter turnout.

“It's really special when you give a constituency someone to vote for rather than someone to vote against,” Gravitt said.

“If anyone could flip this seat, it would be someone like Nez,” Covey said in the Cook Political Report.

Nevertheless, the strength of the local vote alone is not enough to win the district. According to census data, the district's indigenous population is about 20%, and voter turnout is relatively low among this group.

Therefore, in order to win, Nez must gain the support of the rest of the district. Gravitt is betting that Crane's scorched-earth style in Congress has turned off some voters who don't believe he has delivered results.

“President Nez has proven time and time again to be the man and candidate of the people he is running for,” Gravitt said.

Rubashkin said it was “significant” that many of Nez's television ads were apolitical and focused on fundamental issues such as water management. The district's partisan bias means Crane wants to keep the campaign's focus on national issues like immigration and crime, while Nez wants to talk about local issues, which could persuade typical Republican voters to defect from their party, he said.

Nez has also tried to link Crane to Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake.

“Lake is losing this district to Gallego, and she is unpopular … even in a seat that Trump easily wins as the front-runner,” Rubashkin said.

Whether Nez wins or not, his candidacy could have implications for other important races in Arizona. Native voters helped swing Arizona for President Joe Biden in 2020, and this demographic has again become a highly sought-after voting bloc in the current presidential campaign this year.

Is Eli Crane’s seat “in play”? Election observers optimize their forecasts

Signs that a Nez win is unlikely

Democrats point to other hopeful signs

Does Nez have a path to victory?

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