Maui weather forecast for October 22, 2024: Maui now

Photo credit: Brittney Cruz

West side

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs: 80 to 86. A light west wind will blow around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. The chance of showers in the early evening is 30 percent. Lows 63 to 69. East winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny early morning, then partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of rain late morning and afternoon. Highs: 80 to 86. East winds around 10 mph, shifting to the west in the afternoon.

South side

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a 20 percent chance of rain. Maximum temperatures are around 88 °C. In the afternoon there will be a light westerly wind with a speed of around 10 miles per hour.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the early evening, then partly cloudy. The chance of showers in the early evening is 20 percent. Lows 63 to 69. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny early morning, then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain late morning and afternoon. Highs around 88. East winds around 10 mph, shifting to the west in the afternoon.

North bank

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny. The chance that it will rain is 20 percent. Highs range from 79 to 84 near the coast and around 68 near 5,000 feet. In the afternoon there will be a light northeasterly wind at around 10 miles per hour.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows range from about 66 near the coast to about 50 near 5,000 feet. South winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning, then cloudy. The chance that it will rain is 20 percent. Highs range from 79 to 84 near the coast and around 67 near 5,000 feet. South winds 10 to 15 mph changing to the northeast in the afternoon.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs: 82 to 89. A light northerly wind will blow 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the early evening, then partly cloudy. The chance of showers in the early evening is 20 percent. Lows around 64. South winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a 20 percent chance of rain. Highs: 82 to 88. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph, shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Inland

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. In the morning there will be easterly winds blowing up to 10 miles per hour and becoming light.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. The chance of showers in the early evening is 20 percent. Lows 44 to 53. Light wind.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny early morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain late morning and afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Light wind.

East Maui

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny. The chance that it will rain is 20 percent. Highs range from 79 to 84 near the coast and around 68 near 5,000 feet. In the afternoon there will be a light northeasterly wind at around 10 miles per hour.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows range from about 66 near the coast to about 50 near 5,000 feet. South winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning, then cloudy. The chance that it will rain is 20 percent. Highs range from 79 to 84 near the coast and around 67 near 5,000 feet. South winds 10 to 15 mph changing to the northeast in the afternoon.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a 30 percent chance of rain. Highs: 73 to 81. A light southerly wind will blow around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers early evening, then partly cloudy late evening and overnight. Low around 61. North winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny early morning, then mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain late morning and afternoon. Highs 74 to 81. Light wind.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs: 71 to 89. A light westerly wind will blow around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows: 55 to 69. East wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny. Highs: 72 to 90. East winds around 10 mph, shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.

Summary

The next few days will see light winds and mostly dry weather. Trade winds strengthening from Friday into the weekend will result in an increase in showers, some of which may be heavy, particularly over windward areas.

discussion

Light winds and mostly dry weather are expected over the next few days. From Friday into next week, trade winds will strengthen and may lead to increased showers, particularly in windward areas.
Latest satellite images show that low cloud cover over the waters east of the islands increased slightly throughout the day, with isolated low clouds punctuating otherwise near-clear skies. A few small showers will be observed over the waters east of Maui and the Big Island, generally moving westward at about 10 mph. An area of ​​rainy low clouds that lingered near Kona Airport throughout the night appears to be clearing. Land-based observations indicate that light winds blow primarily downslope and offshore, except in exposed windward locations where light easterly trade winds blow at speeds less than 10 miles per hour. The trade wind-borne ridge to the north and local pressure gradient continue to be weakened by a slow-moving complex low approximately 1,300 miles northwest of Kauai. The subtropical escarpment to the south of this feature is sending thin, high clouds over the area from the west, while morning soundings indicated a relatively dry air mass with a PWAT of about 1.1 inches.
The slow-moving low to the northwest will provide weak winds, while a fast-developing low about 1,300 miles northeast of the islands will also help keep the local pressure gradient loose into Friday. The resulting weather regime of land and sea breezes means mostly clear (apart from a few high clouds) and cool mornings with a small chance of a windward shower. Afternoon clouds over leeward areas also bring the possibility of a shower, particularly on the Big Island. A nearby mountain ridge ensures that little to no precipitation accumulates. As already mentioned, there will be periods when increased high clouds move over the islands from the west, particularly this afternoon and tonight.
Surface high pressure building north of the islands from Friday into early next week will lead to strengthening trade winds, becoming breezy through Sunday. The ridge will weaken over the weekend as a high-altitude low moves across the area from the north. However, model forecasts remain inconsistent regarding the timing and location of this low. A slow-moving front will approach the islands from the northeast this weekend, and some forecasts suggest this source of increased low- and mid-level moisture will eventually move over the islands with increasing trade wind flow. The weather forecast suggests heavy rain (and even snow on the Big Island Summits) is possible this weekend. Although this remains in the official forecast for consistency, it is worth noting that it is not well supported by the EPS forecasts. Regardless, rainfall would favor the windward areas where the trade winds would prevail.

aviation

A cold front well north of the state will slowly drift south, forecasting light winds through at least Wednesday. Lighter large-scale winds produce more variable wind directions with afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land breezes over all islands. A weak ridge aloft will also provide stable conditions across the state with limited clouds and only a few showers.
There are no AIRMETs in effect and are not expected.

marine

A surface ridge to the north will remain weak over the next few days as a broad low pressure area snakes well northwest of the state. Land and sea breezes are expected near the coast, with diurnal accelerations possibly resulting in fresh breezes in the afternoon. A return of fresh to strong easterly winds is possible over the weekend as the ridge strengthens towards the north.
Surf along the north and east coasts will increase on Wednesday in the second half of the week as a short to medium-term north-north-easterly swell from a forecast trough in storm strength will develop about 1,000 nautical miles northeast today by midweek. This will be a long-lived event as the system slowly evolves and drifts northeast toward the end of the week. Forecasts indicate strengthening of this system Friday into Saturday, possibly coinciding with peak surf. Thursday through Saturday, highs will hover near the recommended highs for east-facing shorelines (10-foot areas), while north-facing locations are expected to remain below recommended highs (15-foot areas). Long-term, forecasts show a storm to squall trending eastward from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska from Wednesday through Friday. If this occurs, a prolonged northerly swell could occur from this feature late Sunday into early next week.
Surf along the south-facing coast will remain light, with predominantly a mix of short- to medium-period southeasterly and long-period southerly to south-southwesterly waves. A slightly larger southerly swell is expected this weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data courtesy of NOAA.gov