Michigan falls in ESPN's latest SP+ rankings despite victory over USC

Michigan survived a thriller on Saturday, defeating USC by a final score of 27-24 thanks to some last-minute heroics from Kalel Mullings and the offensive line. It certainly wasn't a pretty win, but it was a win nonetheless, and Michigan is now 3-1 on the year.

As expected, Michigan rose from No. 18 to No. 12 in the AP poll with the win. However, in the latest edition of Bill Connelly and ESPN's SP+ rankings, the Wolverines slipped a few spots, falling to No. 15.

For those of you who aren't familiar with SP+, Connelly describes it as “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that takes into account a team's efficiency in all three phases of the game. These efficiencies are boiled down to a metric that can be used as an alternative method of evaluating college football teams.

This rating can be used to predict how many points a given team would beat (or lose) the “average” college football team by. For example, Michigan's rating after Week 4 is 15.8, meaning Michigan should beat the “average” college football team by 15.8 points on a neutral field. That's a decrease of 1.6 points from Michigan's rating last week.

According to efficiency rankings, Michigan has the fifth-best defense in the country, which Saturday's game certainly backed up with great play at all three levels and an excellent game plan from Wink Martindale. However, the offense ranks 61st in the country. That's true, too, as evidenced by the passing attack's struggles so far.

As for the rest of the field, Texas is the new No. 1 seed in the country, swapping places with Ohio State, which is now No. 2 after its 49-14 win over Marshall on Saturday.

Michigan is the fourth-best team in the Big Ten, behind the aforementioned Ohio State (No. 2), Penn State (No. 8) and Oregon (No. 9). After its first loss of the season, USC slipped to No. 24.

Next week, Michigan hosts the Golden Gophers of Minnesota in a battle for the Little Brown Jug. Minnesota enters the contest at 2-2 after losing 31-14 at home to Iowa on Saturday. Minnesota is the 47th-ranked team in the country according to SP+ with a 6.3 rating, suggesting Michigan should win the game by about 10 points.

We will certainly see when the teams take the field on Saturday afternoon.