Nate Silver Prediction Today: The Nate Silver team's final prediction for the US elections: “Polls are close, results may not be.”

Previously, Nate Silver accused pollsters of putting their fingers on the scales.

Survey Guru Nate SilverThe Silver Bulletin announced its final prediction a day before the election, saying the White House battle would be “purely back and forth.” Former President Donald Trump has a 51.5 percent chance of winning, while Vice President Kamala Harris has a 48.1 percent chance. His forecast was based on final polls from Morning Consult and The New York Times.
According to the latest NYT/Sienna polls, Kamala Harris is leading in four of the seven swing states – Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Harris and Trump are tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Trump is ahead in Arizona.
The Morning Consult poll favors Donald Trump as he is slightly ahead in three battleground states – Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin; and tied in Arizona and Pennsylvania.
The polls are close, but that doesn't mean there will be results, wrote Silver Bulletin analyst Eli Mckown-Dawson. He wrote that the Silver Bulletin's forecast has hovered around 50/50 since mid-September, Trump gained ground in mid-October, and Harris is now gaining back just a little. “…But that doesn't mean that the actual result will be that close. If the polls are completely correct, we will be in for a tough game on Tuesday evening. But systematic polling error is always possible, perhaps especially so.” If you believe that pollsters only publish results that agree with the consensus. And because things are so close, even an average poll error would turn the situation on its head.
“Now it's important to note that the poll error runs both ways and it is all but impossible to predict in advance which way it will go. Harris could outperform her polls, or we could be looking at a third failure from Trump. But both scenarios did.” We have one thing in common: They would turn election night into a relative failure.
See also:
US presidential election | Trump vs. Kamala Harris | Swing states | Donald Trump