National Hurricane Center monitors Caribbean

The northwestern Caribbean is an area to watch closely for the potential formation of a tropical storm next week. It's too early for specific details, but the U.S. Gulf Coast should watch closely to see how this forecast develops in the coming days.

The area to be observed: The National Hurricane Center has outlined an area between Cuba and Central America where a tropical depression or storm could potentially form over the next seven days. There is currently no system to track in this region, as evidenced by the general absence of storms in the satellite view below.

By the weekend or early next week, a broad low pressure system associated with the so-called Central American Gyre could form, bringing with it increasingly stormy weather. Then we will be watching this region of the Caribbean closely for tropical development.

When a tropical storm could develop: The earliest chance of this broad low pressure system developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the northwestern Caribbean is early to mid-next week. The next storm names are Helene and Isaac.

This would require the broader low pressure area to develop into a better defined low pressure area with persistent rain and thunderstorm activity.

Exactly when and where the system forms (if it forms at all) and the strength of the influence of a southward jet stream moving eastward across the central U.S. next week will play a role in where it goes. The stronger the influence of that jet stream, the more likely it is that the U.S. Gulf Coast, particularly the eastern half of the Gulf Coast, including Florida, will be threatened over the next week.

Could it be a hurricane? This is certainly possible. Ocean heat content is a favorable factor for intensification, and the map below shows that there is plenty of deep, warm water in the northwestern Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

But there are other factors that play a role, such as whether the wind pattern at altitude favors intensification. It is also not known whether dry air nearby or land contact, such as with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, could hinder intensification.

At this time, stakeholders along the U.S. Gulf Coast should closely monitor the situation while ensuring hurricane preparedness plans are in place. Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates throughout the weekend and beyond as we share more details on what to expect.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist at weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career at the Weather Channel in the early 2000s.