North Korean troops may face a reality shock in Ukraine

“There is evidence that there are DPRK troops in Russia,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday, confirming for the first time an October 18 report by South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) that Pyongyang was and was supplying Moscow with manpower As a first step, he sent around 1,500 soldiers to the Russian Far East to train for the trenches there. The transfers took place between October 8 and 13, NIS reported, warning that more transfers were expected soon.

“(It’s) very, very serious,” Austin said.

Shortly afterwards, NATO also confirmed that it had evidence of North Korean troops stationing in Russia.

“If these troops are destined to fight in Ukraine, it would be a significant escalation of North Korea's support for Russia's illegal war and a further sign of Russia's significant losses on the front lines,” NATO spokesman Farah Dakhlallah said in a statement .

The news comes as South Korean lawmakers say the number of North Korean troops has now grown to as many as 3,000 and that the total is expected to be around 10,000.

Immediate desertions?

On October 15, barely a week after the first North Korean soldiers were believed to have arrived in Russia, Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne reported that hundreds of North Korean troops were already stationed near the front lines in Russia's Kursk and Bryansk regions, about seven kilometers away the Ukrainian border. 18 of them have already given up their positions, it said, citing Ukrainian intelligence sources.

Follow-up reports in Ukrainian media suggested that the troops had abandoned their posts after being left in a forested area without food or instructions from their Russian counterparts. They were later found and arrested by Russian forces.

Although the reports could not be independently verified, they shed light on a unique challenge that Moscow and Pyongyang may face as they seek to integrate North Korean soldiers alongside the Russian army: their exposure to the world outside Kim's North Korea .

See through the lies

“They will find themselves in situations where they can see the light and the lie,” said Hugh Griffiths, a U.N. sanctions specialist and former coordinator of the U.N. Panel of Experts on North Korea, adding that the harsh realities of war and the Difficulties in keeping these troops isolated from Russian soldiers are likely to have a “profound impact on their worldview.”

“North Korea has one of the largest armies in the world, millions are technically under arms, but it is not a good army, it relies on mass, and none of the soldiers have been tested on the battlefield,” he said, referring to Kim's propaganda that North Korea being “invincible” will be the first bubble to burst, impacting morale.

“The Ukrainians will bomb them, and you will see the defeat of North Korea. You don't see that in North Korea: They die, they don't make progress, they don't get to Kiev on the backs of Russian tanks. Things aren’t going to go well for them.”

The value of a broken cigarette

Second, North Korean soldiers are confronted with new kinds of freedoms that they themselves have never enjoyed before or even knew existed.

“They cannot be isolated in the same way as in peacetime situations, so they will encounter Russians who enjoy slightly higher standards of living and have access to cell phones and social media like Telegram etc.,” Griffiths said, adding that something Something as simple as owning a Russian cigarette could make a big difference in a North Korean soldier's mindset, essentially “polluting” his censored worldview.

“Russian cigarettes are better than North Korean cigarettes. So that would be a luxury for them.”

Third, Griffiths said, it is the North Korean troops who are being sent into the “meat grinder” of war without Russia caring about their survival in terms of basic needs such as food and water. “They are not treated well and are used as cannon fodder.”

He noted that this will cause fear.

“You will realize that this is a two-way street, so there will likely be desertions and defections.”

Kim's worst nightmare

Edward Howell, a Korea Foundation fellow at Chatham House and author of “North Korea and the Global Nuclear Order,” said defections are among Kim's worst nightmares because they call into question the entire legitimacy of his regime.

“Many elite and non-elite North Koreans who decided to defect initially recognized that the North Korean regime's view of the outside world and the picture it paints of the outside world is, frankly, a lie,” said he .

“And how has North Korea dealt with defectors so far?” he asked rhetorically, referring to the killing of Kim's half-brother at a Kuala Lumpur airport in 2017 and the strict domestic controls enforced in the country since Kim came to power in 2011 became.

However, that doesn't mean that defection can be ruled out by the squad, which was likely hand-picked because they are young and subject to Kim's dictates. “I think a lot of soldiers are still thinking about the possibility of defecting,” he said.

Pariah states come together

But according to Howell, Kim would have at least partially taken this into account before agreeing to support the Russian army with his own troops. In June, Kim signed a mutual defense pact with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Analysts say it is the two countries' strongest agreement since the Cold War and includes a clause requiring both countries to use “all available means” to provide each other with immediate military assistance in the event of war.

“The benefits are far too great for North Korea to think, 'We made a mistake, let's not send our troops to Russia,'” he said, pointing to the money, food, military aid and satellite technology that the Pariah state represents received from Russia in return.

“The only thing the North Korean regime really wants is to be seen as the leader of a de facto nuclear state,” he said.

For his part, Griffiths pointed out that the risk of a North Korean defection could come at a more than high price.

“I think it's a misjudgment. None of this will end well. Neither for Kim nor for Putin.”