October 28: Start near freezing, then near 80 degrees on Halloween and some rain in sight

October 28, 2024

Monday morning report

There is no doubt that we are in a drought! There has been virtually no precipitation since October 1st. There was barely any precipitation on October 2nd and 4th, so it's essentially been 4 weeks and the next chance could be the end of this week.

The big story will be the temperatures. This morning we have a freeze warning and temperatures have dropped below 32°F from Baltimore to Salisbury…it remains mild closer to the water.

The backflow around high pressure will bring warmer temperatures this week, so the 70s could move in tomorrow and then become common. It's expected to reach the 80s in some areas on Halloween and then we'll cool down for another weekend.

Frost warning

Temperatures on Monday morning

Morning surface weather

A big temperature swing will take us from near freezing temperatures to 60 degrees today, then 70 degrees tomorrow, and 80 degrees on Halloween.

We'll stay dry until maybe Friday.

Weather forecast for the afternoon

Seasonal…

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY, October 28th

Sunrise at 7:31 a.m

Sunset at 6:10 p.m

Normal low in Baltimore: 42°F

Record temperature of 27°F in 1976

Normal high temperature in Baltimore: 64°F

Record temperature of 30 °C in 1919

Drought update

Baltimore only recorded significant rain on October 1st. On the 2nd it was barely measurable and on the 4th there was a trace. So it's been about 4 weeks since it rained:

• Oct 1 = 0.35 inches
• Oct 2 = 0.01
• Oct 3 = 0.00
• Oct. 4 – Trace…

Baltimore stats:

Precipitation down -5.51 inches since September 1st

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29

Morning low

Afternoon high

Jetstream animation: Tuesday to Thursday

A large mountain ridge will dominate the eastern United States this week. This keeps us very warm and still very dry!

Thursday: Halloween

The highest temperatures on this route are expected just in time for trick-or-treating.

Thursday night through Saturday morning

The next cold front will arrive in early November and there could be rain on Friday.

Take a closer look

This cold front looks a bit more active and has a better chance of rain or even a thunderstorm. This won't be a cure for the drought, but anything will help.

The look forward

Friday, November 1st to Friday, November 8th

It may be another week before we see a shift towards colder and more seasonal weather again.

7 day forecast

Big jump from frost this morning to near 30°C on Halloween. With the cold front on Friday there is a good chance of brief rain, then it will be colder next weekend.

Note: There was a record heat wave in 1946, which this year may just beat… The next heat wave will occur on Halloween.

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FIRST FROST DATES

Here is the average data across Maryland, and it matches the evidence we saw last week.

Click on this image to see more details about Maryland and Pennsylvania.

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REPEATING MY MESSAGE ON THE TOPIC OF LEGEND

I understand that there are some spelling and grammatical errors, as well as occasional other errors. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I may miss. I've made a few public statements over the years, but if you're new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out about it in my sophomore year at Cornell University. However, that didn't stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had made it this far without knowing it and that I shouldn't let it be a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes when proofreading myself. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes misses the mark and makes the problem worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. Nobody is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.

There was no editor to review my work when writing and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy time frame. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this website. She has made it her mission to correct typos when available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept that and perhaps prove that what you read is really mine… It's part of my charm. #FITF